The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Average customer rating:

Very thoughtful and enlightening book

Mr. Taleb Should Stay Away from Theology

Hard to Read

You have to work to separate the wheat from the chaff

Not recommended

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Manufacturer: Random House
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 1400063515
Release Date: 2007-04-17

Amazon.com

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

Book Description

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

Customer Reviews:

Very thoughtful and enlightening book.......2007-10-02

Taleb has a winner here. The book brings a new slant to what really drives almost every trend. Often the stock traders and predictors of political events are not just wrong, but dead wrong. The reasons for these mistakes and others are explained in entertaining fashion in this book "The Black Swan".

Mr. Taleb Should Stay Away from Theology.......2007-10-01

I found this book highly entertaining. I love the way he writes, his sense humor. But I was very disappointed to see him press repeatedly his complete rejection of the Christian/Judeo understanding of the history of man, the history of God's plan for man's salvation. Ok, he has not the gift of faith. That's ok, perhaps one day. But when I purchase a book on the markets, economics, etc. I expect just that. Not repeated remarks (page 100, 118, etc.) about the non-existence of miracles, how the human race is a mere accident. Why should he be selling this ? Why should I accept his assertions ? On faith ? He's a good man wrapped in a self-contradiction of skeptiscism. I just wish his editor had filtered these things out from the final MS.

Hard to Read.......2007-09-29

I read a chapter of this book. It seemed to me it was trying to make political points (and therefore I found it untrustworthy) also it was just hard to read because I found it boring.

You have to work to separate the wheat from the chaff.......2007-09-24

There's no doubt that Nassim Taleb is a brilliant man. And, there's no doubt that he is frustrated by having to work among people who don't get it. What is there to get? Simply that the quest for certainty -- through mathematics, science or other logic disciplines -- may end up being the very thing which obfuscates the truth; that we end up not being able to see the forest for the trees. I think what he is saying is that there can never be certainty; that there will always be Black Swans...random events.
The reason why I say "I think" that is what he is saying is because there is so much stuff here -- a lot of which is totally irrelevant. He talks about his home town, seemingly just to wax nostaligic, though he may use the vignette to talk -- belaboredly -- about a point. Among the other stuff he presents is: an unusally high regard for the French language; too much - again irrelevant - reference to and back-story about thought leaders, and; palpable disdain for some colleagues in the quantitative field. If you can get through all of that and hold on to the nuggets, though, you will see some fresh thinking. Just his distinction between 2 different systems of thought is worth the work required. There are other presentations which may shift the way you think about things, too. In the end, it's worth reading, but you will have to focus on what's important because he doesn't.

Not recommended.......2007-09-21

The author expressed his strong negative options on statistics, econometrics, some finance professors, some Nobel Prize winners, etc. The whole point is that traditional stat, econ, finance techniques are mostly around the first moment (mean) but the distributions in finance tend to be non-normal and it's the risk that we should pay more attention to. That's a point few people would disagree with. What the author may not have known is that there are stat techniques out there that handle all the issues mentioned - while it's true that there's a lot of room for improvement, it's misleading to say that this is an area ignored by the academics and practitioners. While fractals are recommended, it is not clear how they can be directly applied to the area of investment finance.

There is a 2007 issue in American Statistican dedicated to the debate with the author and is highly recommended.

Uncertainty, Information and Communication: Essays in Honor of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume III

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Uncertainty, Information and Communication: Essays in Honor of Kenneth J. Arrow, Volume III

Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0521327040

Book Description

Professor Kenneth J. Arrow is one of the most distinguished economic theorists. He has played a major role in shaping the present state of the subject and now is to be honored by the publication of three volumes of essays on economic theory. Each volume deals with a different area of economic theory. The books include contributions by some of the best economic theorists from the United Stated, Japan, Israel and Europe. This third volume is entitled Uncertainty, information, and communication.

The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information (Cambridge Surveys of Economic Literature)

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Difficult but worthwhile read

The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information (Cambridge Surveys of Economic Literature)
Jack Hirshleifer , and John G. Riley
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
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Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0521283698

Book Description

Recent intellectual advances in the theory of uncertainty and information are presented in this book, which unifies many important but partial results into a satisfying single picture, making it clear how the economics of uncertainty and information generalizes and extends standard economic analysis. Part 1 covers the economics of uncertainty: each person adapts to a given fixed state of knowledge by making an optimal choice among the immediate "terminal" actions available. These choices in turn determine the overall market equilibrium reflecting the social distribution of risk-bearing. In Part 2, covering the economics of information, the state of knowledge is no longer held fixed, and individuals can overcome their ignorance by "informational" actions. The text also addresses many specific topics such as insurance, the Capital Asset Pricing Model, auctions, deterrence of entry, and research and invention.

Customer Reviews:

Difficult but worthwhile read.......2004-02-21

Firstly, this book is not a book for a novice to economics, and as an economics graduate, I found this a challenging book to read. If you are a mathematics major, you might also want to consider this book. That being said, the theories expressed in this book are truely phenomenal. Anyone with an interest or background in transactions cost economic theory will be both at an advantage, and will have a deep appreciation for the contents of this book.

This book comes in two halves. The first deals with situations where an individual has limited information, and derives some generalised theories about how individuals choose actions to obtain a probability density function of alternatives (since outcomes are not fully known). The second half of this book deals with situations where an agent can partake in information gathering activities to reduce the risk involved in the action-consequence connection.

This is a tough book, not for the faint of heart. But it is an incredibly worthwhile book. And as I said earlier, a background in economics (or *possibly* mathematics) is essential. Easily worth the money paid.

Information and Organizations (California Series on Social Change and Political Economy, No 19)
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Information and Organizations (California Series on Social Change and Political Economy, No 19)
Arthur L. Stinchcombe
Manufacturer: University of California Press
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Binding: Paperback

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Book Description

An ambitious new work by a well-respected sociologist, Information and Organizations provides a bold perspective of the dynamics of organizations. Stinchcombe contends that the "information problem" and the concept of "uncertainty" provide the key to understanding how organizations function. In a delightful mix of large theoretical insights and vivid anecdotal material, Stinchcombe explores the ins and outs of organizations from both a macro and micro perspective. He reinterprets the work of the renowned scholars of business, Alfred Chandler, James March and Oliver Williamson, and looks in depth at corporations like DuPont and General Motors. Along the way, Stinchcombe explores subjects as varied as class consciousness, innovation, contracts and university administration. All of these analyses are distinguished by incisive thinking and creative new approaches to issues that have long confronted business people and those interested in organizational theory.
A tour de force, Information and Organizations is a must-read for business people and scholars of many stripes. It promises to be a widely discussed and debated work.

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The Economics of Imperfect Information
Louis Phlips
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Book Description

This is the first systematic textbook presentation of the new microeconomic theories based on imperfect information. Each chapter explores a particular type of informational asymmetry and reviews the main contributions, from the seminal papers of the late 1960s through the most recent developments. Wherever possible the theories covered are confronted with the available experimental evidence.

The Economics of Uncertainty and Information

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Not for the faint of heart
Great Textbook and Great Manual

The Economics of Uncertainty and Information
Jean-Jacques Laffont
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
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Binding: Hardcover

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Book Description

The Economics of Uncertainty and Information may be used in conjunction with Loffont's Fundamentals of Economics in an advanced course in microeconomics. Both texts provide a thorough account of modern thinking on the subject and a wealth of carefully chosen examples and problems.

The first four chapters of The Economics of Uncertainty and Information summarize the essential tools of the analysis of uncertainty and information: the theory of individual behavior under uncertainty, the measures of risk aversion and the measures of risk, and the notions of certainty equivalence and information structure. Subsequent chapters introduce the theory of contingent markets, model systems of incomplete markets and define the concept of a perfect foresight equilibrium, cover two fundamental institutions for sharing risk - the stock market and insurance, show how the transmission of information by prices renders information structures endogenous, and study personalized exchange with asymmetric information.

Each chapter concludes with a list of suggested readings and with auxiliary sections which go into more detail about certain aspects of the subject. The book concludes with review problems and exercises.

Jean Jacques Laffont is Professor of Economic Sciences at the Université des Sciences Sociales de Toulouse and Director of Studies at I'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales.

Customer Reviews:

Not for the faint of heart.......2004-03-05

I'm not entirely sure how to explain this book, as I didn't understand a word of it. I have also read "The Analytics of Information and Uncertainty", another book with heavy mathematical content, but one I found to be very good in scope and application. This text, however, seems to overuse mathematical methods. Economics is not about learning propositional mathematics, and just flicking through this book, there are models I already know, like the Edgeworth box diagram as applied to payoff states, and it was in a totally unrecognisable form! Even the fundamental theorems of welfare economics were garbled!

I would heartily recommend this text to anyone who has completed 2nd year university level mathematics courses, or is a university lecturer in Economics. If you're just an ordinary graduate with little interest in deep mathematical methods, there are better books out there.

Great Textbook and Great Manual.......2000-06-07

This is really a great book: it is exhaustive and concise at the same time. Starting with the foundation of the theory of choice under uncertainty, it covers the topics of information structure, general equilibrium under uncertainty, and the typical asymmetric information topics: moral hazard and adverse selection. Given its completeness can be naturally used as a reference manual. And given the author's clarity of exposition can be also used as textbook.

Organization with Incomplete Information: Essays in Economic Analysis: A Tribute to Roy Radner

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Organization with Incomplete Information: Essays in Economic Analysis: A Tribute to Roy Radner

Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
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Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0521553008

Book Description

This collection contains essays that provide definitive and accessible accounts of recent research on some of the most important topics in the theory of decision-making and organization-design with incomplete information. Aimed primarily at nonspecialists, some of the essays indicate the limitations of accepted paradigms and suggest directions of future research. Graduate students contemplating careers in economic theory will find the volume a particularly stimulating source of research topics. It can also serve as an item on the reading list of courses on advanced microeconomic theory, information theory, game theory and organization theory.

The Welfare State As Piggy Bank: Information, Risk, Uncertainty, and the Role of the State

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The Welfare State As Piggy Bank: Information, Risk, Uncertainty, and the Role of the State
Nicholas Barr
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
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Binding: Hardcover

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The Economics of the Welfare State

ASIN: 0199246599

Book Description

Of the many functions of the welfare state, two are particularly prominent: the 'Robin Hood' function - the provision of poverty relief, the redistribution of income and wealth, and the reduction of social exclusion; and the 'piggy bank' function - ensuring mechanisms for insurance and for redistribution over the life cycle. The piggy-bank function, unlike the redistributive purpose of the welfare state, has received relatively little attention, and is not widely understood. This book redresses the balance. Nicholas Barr's central contention is that---contrary to popular opinion---the welfare state exists for reasons additional to poverty relief. These reasons - encapsulated by the piggy-bank function - arise out of pervasive problems of imperfect information, risk, and uncertainty. Even if all poverty and social exclusion could be eradicated, people would still need to insure themselves and to redistribute over the life cycle. As a result, Barr argues, the welfare state is here to stay, since twenty-first century developments do nothing to undermine these reasons. He also explores ways in which the welfare state can and will adapt to economic and social change, including specific, and sometimes novel, solutions. The analysis in "The Welfare State as Piggy Bank" is international, applying to advanced industrial countries, as well as addressing post-communist countries, and touching upon middle-income developing countries. Barr's approach is contemporary and forward-thinking. His discussion ranges over a number of topics of central relevance to life in the twenty-first century, including genetic screening and its impact on insurance; the convergence of private and social insurance; how to finance long-term care; pension reform in the light of fluid family structures and a mobile workforce; loans for financing investment in human capital; and new ways of involving private finance in tertiary education.

The Economics of Information: Lying and Cheating in Markets and Organizations

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The Economics of Information: Lying and Cheating in Markets and Organizations
Ian Molho
Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishers
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0631206663

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Managing Uncertainty
H. Katzan
Manufacturer: Chapman & Hall/CRC
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Binding: Paperback

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Working at Warp Speed: The New Rules for Project Success in a Sped-Up World
Average customer rating:

Dilbert without Pictures

Much More Than Just a way to Make Money

Focuses on the power of people in project success!

Great Book

An unusually insightful and useful project management book!

Working at Warp Speed: The New Rules for Project Success in a Sped-Up World
Barry Flicker
Manufacturer: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
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Book Description

The discrepancy between what we know and what we do can trigger poor planning, miscommunication, overload, and a host of other ills. The constant games of catch-up and fire-fighting can turn even simple projects into nightmares. In Working at Warp Speed, Barry Flicker explains that people can break such patterns only by cultivating the ability to make and keep clear commitments. He recounts a simple story about a handful of people who, through powerful direct experience, learn to stop complaining about the idiots out there and begin examining their own behaviors and assumptions. This shift is the key, according to Flicker, to successful project management in business and in life.

Customer Reviews:

Dilbert without Pictures.......2002-11-01

This book is about achieving project success at warp speed. Barry Flicker describes the various kinds of project team members and suggests the best ways to deal with them.

Flicker uses stories to drive home his points beginning with: Many project teams fail at proper communication due to (perceived) lack of time. He describes the Four Rules of Warp Speed that can provide relief from the many frustrations. The secret is to know when and how to slow down and to include all the right people at the right times.

Flicker is a gifted professional speaker, successful business consultant and a fine writer.

Dan Poynter, ParaPublishing.com.

Much More Than Just a way to Make Money.......2002-06-01

Barry Flicker's book "Working at Warp Speed" is a small book, that speaks volumes. Frequently in todays world, as shown through the media's headlines, we often hear of, and witness for ourselves the gross extent at which individuals, and individuals connected to business will sacrifice the most basic of morals, in order to quote "get ahead". Flicker returns to the fundamentals of what it means to be human, in explaining that, personally accountability, communication of feelings, and making goals situations where numerous parties come out winners, is a main message of the book. This is in contrast to blaming others for any mishaps you come across, holding everything in, becoming frustrated, and lastly, fighting not to be a "loser" destroying anything in your path on the way to quote "win". By following Flicker's book we see that money, and success, is a bi-product of holding ones integrity at the forefront of ones life. In the end by doing this life becomes much more enjoyable.

Focuses on the power of people in project success!.......2002-05-23

Flecker uses an interesting approach to help the reader get into his book and relate to the issues that block project success. His focus is on the people who make the project succeed, and rightly it should be. Quite simply, people make projects succeed!

His 4 rules of warp speed are simple to grasp, and they are vital to project success. All in all a great resource book for any project leader or team member!

Great Book.......2002-03-25

This is the kind of book that anyone working with others on a project should keep nearby. It's practical, funny, and written in a down to earth way that makes you comfortable using it immediately to guide your own work. After reading it, you might want to start getting copies for everyone because it's done in a way that is easy to remember and talk about.

An unusually insightful and useful project management book!.......2002-03-19

In a world that's drowning in books on management in general, and project management in particular, this one really stands out.

The author takes a far more human approach to the discipline, and addresses the real-world issues that REALLY cause teams and projects to fall apart, miss deadlines, etc. Gone are the elaborate theoretical constructs that sound good while reading about them, but which don't stick, and thus make no difference in behavior.

In their place is very accessible, well-writtten guidance on identifying the pivotal issues, and how to address them. This is MUST reading for anyone having trouble managing multiple priorities.

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