Customer Reviews:
More Killing Defence.......2007-09-21
I have just started to read this book, but the first chapter - on discardng - is excellent. This topic is not really covered in any other bridge books that I have seen - and Kelsey's discussion of it is well worth the price of the book.
Tired of discarding from 10xxx and letting 3NT make?.......2001-02-23
Are you sick and tired of discarding from Txxx and letting 3NT romp home, when you could have discarded from JTxx and set it? Are you weary of watching declarer happily test one suit to see if it breaks, then try a finesse if that doesn't work, then try a squeeze if that doesn't work, when you could have forced declarer to commit to an early decision before he could extract much information about the defensive holdings? Are you guilt-ridden about the times you happily gave partner an early ruff and then watched him squirm because you endplayed him? Are you fed up with being -650 on a board and opening the score slip to discover most of the field was -620? Then read this book -- it is devoted to restricting declarer's options, preserving the defenders' options, and discarding correctly in situations that come up 3 times a session, not once a quarter. Buy two and give partner one. Hide it from the opponents -- soon you will be declarer again, so you mustn't let them read it!
Product Description
Every good Bridge player is aware that the most difficult part of Bridge is defense. Every Bridge player realizes that for every hand which he/she plays as declarer, he/she will play two as a defender. This is not a book for the beginner. It is addressed primarily to the player of some experience; nevertheless, it is not written just for experts. The hands that are cited are those kinds of hands one will encounter in an ordinary evening's play. The principles set forth in this book can be employed to great advantage by everyone who aspires to play the game well.
Product Description
First American Edition. Incisive techniques in defense that will improve your bridge game enormously.
Book Description
Killing Defence at Bridge is one of the all-time classics of the game. When it was first published, it revolutionized defense play, and today it continues to be as incisive and relevant as ever.
Customer Reviews:
Advanced book.......2007-07-26
There are many very good books on Defense. This is still one of the best. A nice set of topics and problems. A few of the problems use bidding that wouldn't be mainstream today and thus are less likely to be solved.
The book focuses on visualization, rather than preventing a Criss Cross Squeeze (though there is a chapter in squeeze defense).
Bridge defence, but not for beginners.......2004-12-19
This is a book for good defenders. If you don't defend well, you need to learn how to defend before you read this.
Kelsey teaches you to practice defending well. And that means counting to 13, over and over and over again. And it helps. If you are indeed a good defender, this will help make you a very good defender.
The 15 pages on opening leads helped me more than the rest of the book combined. Right after reading the chapter, I played in a bridge tournament. Declarer had bid both majors and dummy had picked hearts, a suit I held A-x in. I immediately led the low heart, stopping declarer from ruffing spades while maintaining control, and setting the contract. It was almost exactly the hand Kelsey had shown on page 61!
That's the good thing about this book. There's plenty of examples that are very similar to what you'll find in actual play. It improved my defensive play noticeably.
Sharpen your defense - you can COUNT on it!.......2000-11-15
All too often, bridge books present hands that look as if they were "set up." In order to get the right answer, you simply eliminate the "obvious" play. Not so in this book. Kelsey's hands look like those ordinary hands you might face in your local club or home game. Kelsey demonstrates that by thoroughly counting a hand (points, cards, tricks), a player can much more easily arrive at the killing defense. That's the major lesson in this book - counting, and Kelsey does a magnificent job of teaching it!
A constant reference to sharpen defensive skills.......1996-10-07
Kelsey's innovative approach to Bridge defence will have even the most skilled defender reading avidly. The problems and his approach to solving them are unique. The descriptions of the plays and options make entertaining reading in themselves and the experianced player is able to smile wrly on identifying their own common errors.
A reference book that is great to read from cover to cover or just open at any page and try the hand. All players will come back to this book to be reminded what they have forgotten or find new ways to teach old dogs tricks.
Book Description
Can You Predict the Future by Looking at the Past? Since accurate forecasting requires more than just inserting historical data into a model, Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3/e, adopts a managerial, business orientation. Integrated throughout this text is the innovative idea that explaining the past is not adequate for predicting the future. Inside, you will find the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. And you'll develop the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts. New features in the third edition include:
* An emphasis placed on the practical uses of forecasting.
* All data sets used in this book are available on the Internet.
* Comprehensive coverage provided on both quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques.
* Includes many new developments in forecasting methodology and practice.
Customer Reviews:
Mildly helpful.......2007-02-14
If you need advanced Forecasting Methods and like the thick mathematical language of typical textbooks, this is for you.
Great reference book!.......2006-07-06
I've been in the field for a few years now and I finally found a book that explains and summarizes the forecasting theory so good. This is my reference book now. I use it to teach my engineers in the subject and for personal reference as well. It provides new information that wasn't available 10 years ago. The explanaitions are good and the examples clear.
DecisionPro Users must have!.......2005-03-02
Was referred to this book while evaluating several software packages for forecasting and this really helped us make the right decision. We decided on Vanguard Software DecisionPro as it supports all the methods (many of which I had no idea existed) that are outlines in this book. This book (and the software) are great. This is a great add-on for anyone doing forecasting!
This book has the formulas........2004-03-12
Chapters 3 and 4, and on covered the vital information that is useful for inventory system forecasting at the SKU level, and for measuring the accuracy of the forecasts. This book was extremely helpful in that regard. Highly recommended.
Down to earth, practical guide on forecasting........2003-12-14
The book provides coverage of three important areas:
- Basic forecasting tools and methods - summarizing data, statistical tools, regression, as well as some material on more advanced forecasting methods
- Data preparation - time series decomposition, smoothing methods
- A discussion of the issues involved in forecasting - long term versus short term forecasting, accuracy of forecasts, the importance and limitations of judgmental forecasts and combining these with statistical forecasts
I was fortunate enough to stumble across this book in a colleagues office and believe this book should belong in every market research professional's shelf.
Book Description
ELEMENTARY FORECASTING focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability. The author illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.
Customer Reviews:
Not Bad.......2007-01-04
The book starts with talking about forecasting deterministic trends, then seasonalities, later chapters 6,7,8 talk about forecasting cycles. Finally in the end chapters the author puts it all together and talks about multivariable forecasting models. The book is on an introductory level, so if you're looking for indepth discussion of these topics this is not for you. Anoter drawback is that this book does not integrate into its discussion of the topics any examples of code that would show how to forecast with any popular software package (Eviews or SAS).
Third edition is no better.......2004-01-15
I posted the unfavorable review of the second edition. I have recently had an opportunity to see the third edition, and find the same errors are still present.
an embarrassingly slapdash and sloppy book.......2002-09-28
There were a considerable number of errors in the first edition that I pointed out to the author shortly after its publication. The second edition seems to have corrected few if any of them. Let me cite two egregious examples.
In the chapter on ARMA models, the example analyzed is Canadian Employment data. One of the models that is fit is an MA(4) -- see pages 164-6. When I tried to reproduce these results using software other than EVIEWS, using the data disk in the 1st edition, I couldn't. I contacted EVIEWS and they discovered a programming error in the estimation routine. They released a patch to fix EVIEWS. However, the author never re-estimated his model, and the estimates in the second edition are the same as in the first. However, my copy of the 2nd edition has no data disk! Was that thought to be an adequate solution?!
Chapter 9 ("Putting it all together") is a capstone chapter that analyzes liquor sales data using the techniques introduced in earlier chapters. After several pages (pp. 207-19) a model is selected. On pages 220-2, the residuals are examined using the Box-Ljung statistic, and deemed acceptable. However, as a careful examination of table 9.6 makes clear, the p-values for the Box-Ljung statistic were computed as if the input data were a raw series. The model generating the residuals (p. 219) had 3 autoregressive terms! This changes the d.f. in the chi-square distribution of the statistic. If you make the appropriate correction using the data in table 9.6, and compute the p-values correctly, you will see that the model residuals apparently ARE NOT white noise. One reason is a calendar effect in liquor sales: months that contain more than a usual number of Fridays and Saturdays result in more liquor sales; ones with more Sundays result in lower liquor sales. However, the author doesn't discover this, but accepts his inappropriate model on the basis of faulty distribution theory.
Good, but poor examples.......1999-11-27
If the purpose of using this book is to get a brief idea of what certain concepts are then it is a good book. Unfortunately, many people using this book are going to be those who do not have much background with the concepts inside and they will be looking for clearer explanations of what the author is talking about. I think that is the book's weakness: the fact that many times I didn't feel that his definitions and explanations were complete enough.
Excellent introductory guide to forecasting !!!.......1999-01-26
The use of practical examples (using the Eviews software) and the availability of a data disk makes this a very relevant guide for practitioners. There is a good section on graphical analysis and modelling of cycles using AR and MA processes. The mathematics is kept simple and clear, intuitive explanations are given throughout. The treatment of unit roots, cointegration and other advanced materials is quite sketchy but I guess that is to be expected in an introductory text. With the level of clarity evident throughout this book, I certainty hope Diebold follows up with another book on more advanced forecasting techniques.
Average customer rating:
- Readable Time Series Book
- Useful for SAS users without a deep love of stats
- Data and Syntax CD with the book
- Difficult to understand
- Vaulable for all people learning econometrics
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An Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting: with Applications of SAS and SPSS
Robert A. Yaffee
Manufacturer: Academic Press
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SAS for Forecasting Time Series, Second Edition
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Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting
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Multiple Time Series Models (Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences)
ASIN: 0127678700 |
Book Description
Providing a clear explanation of the fundamental theory of time series analysis and forecasting, this book couples theory with applications of two popular statistical packages--SAS and SPSS. The text examines moving average, exponential smoothing, Census X-11 deseasonalization, ARIMA, intervention, transfer function, and autoregressive error models and has brief discussions of ARCH and GARCH models. The book features treatments of forecast improvement with regression and autoregression combination models and model and forecast evaluation, along with a sample size analysis for common time series models to attain adequate statistical power. To enhance the book's value as a teaching tool, the data sets and programs used in the book are made available on the Academic Press Web site. The careful linkage of the theoretical constructs with the practical considerations involved in utilizing the statistical packages makes it easy for the user to properly apply these techniques.
Key Features
* Describes principal approaches to time series analysis and forecasting
* Presents examples from public opinion research, policy analysis, political science, economics, and sociology
* Free Web site contains the data used in most chapters, facilitating learning
* Math level pitched to general social science usage
* Glossary makes the material accessible for readers at all levels
Customer Reviews:
Readable Time Series Book.......2007-04-24
I have found this book very helpful. I am a Clinical Psychologist with a strong research background, yet have had difficulty understanding the very technical 8+ Time Series books I have read thus far. This book is relatively easy to read, and has helped me complete my analyses correctly.
Useful for SAS users without a deep love of stats.......2007-04-04
This textbook has been useful for my work (using SAS) on interrupted time series analysis. Fairly useful examples, but very few examples using transfer functions, which is my interest. Overall, this has been an excellent resource for developing my time series models, and the SAS code is especially helpful. I'd recommend it to others that are not econometrics experts interested in using ARIMA models, but may be intimidated by other highly statistical texts.
Data and Syntax CD with the book.......2004-08-26
I think this book is useless unless the author includes a CD of data and syntax as had been done by Gujarati and Green.
Difficult to understand.......2001-05-18
Although I have taken courses in multivriate statistics, I had a very difficult time getting through the second chapter in this text. Certainly, there must be something that is easier to understand. The author writes as if he spent his whole life inside the ivory tower and gravitates towards three and four syllable words. I thought that this book would be simple to uderstand because it is targeted to students in the social sciences. I thought wrong!
Vaulable for all people learning econometrics.......2000-10-24
"Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting with Applications of SAS and SPSS" is the best textbook in the area of econometrics that I ever read so far. It demonstrates detail programme language of SAS and SPSS for time series analysis and Forecasting which make this book distinguishable from others. I found the explanation of the programme language (right beside the programme) is easy to read and make me understand SAS and SPSS more, especially for the beginner of these programmes. Besides the programme language, the text itself also explains the concepts and the equations of the time series analysis and econometrics in an easy to understand and orgainzed way. This is definitely a good tool book for people learning econometrics.
Average customer rating:
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Spatial Objective Analysis: With Applications in Atmospheric Science
H. J. Thiebaux , and
M. A. Pedder
Manufacturer: Academic Pr
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ASIN: 0126869308 |
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Economic Forecasting for Business: Concepts and Applications
John J. McAuley
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall College Div
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ASIN: 0132315564 |
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Environmental Resource Valuation - Applications of the Contingent Valuation Method in Italy (Studies in Risk and Uncertainty)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0792381432 |
Book Description
Economic values are increasingly used in policy analysis and legal settings. With the growing recognition that many of the things that benefit or harm people are outside the market system, have come increasing efforts to develop nonmarket valuation techniques. One such technique is the contingent valuation method (CVM). CVM seeks to value environmental and other nonmarket goods and services by asking individuals about their values using survey methods. These procedures are different from the `revealed-preference' methods that economists have historically employed to estimate economic values.
Why depart from well-established revealed-preference procedures and apply a `stated-preference' method like CVM? For nonmarket goods and services, revealed-preference methods have two shortcomings that those applying CVM hope to avoid. First, revealed-preference methods involve econometric problems that have yet to be fully overcome. The second shortcoming of revealed-preference methods is that such methods, when applied to environmental amenities, are likely to be only partial measures of value.
Given the tremendous interest that exists in economic values and the limitations of revealed-preference methods, it is not surprising that interest in CVM has grown rapidly.
Environmental Resource Valuation reviews the application of CVM and compares American experiences in nonmarket evaluation with those in other countries.
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Killing Defence at Bridge (Master Bridge Series)
Adventures in Card Play (Master Bridge Series)
Why You Lose at Bridge
Kelsey on Squeeze Play (Master Bridge Series)
How to Read Your Opponents' Cards
