Book Description
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach.
Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
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Assessing Rational Expectations 2: "Eductive" Stability in Economics
Roger Guesnerie
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
 Econometrics
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ASIN: 0262072580 |
Book Description
The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure.
Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
Book Description
Modern business cycle theory and growth theory uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. Many mathematical tools are needed to solve these models. The book presents various methods for computing the dynamics of general equilibrium models. In part I, the representative-agent stochastic growth model is solved with the help of value function iteration, linear and linear quadratic approximation methods, parameterised expectations and projection methods. In order to apply these methods, fundamentals from numerical analysis are reviewed in detail. Part II discusses methods for solving heterogeneous-agent economies. In such economies, the distribution of the individual state variables is endogenous. This part of the book also serves as an introduction to the modern theory of distribution economics. Applications include the dynamics of the income distribution over the business cycle or the overlapping-generations model. Through an accompanying home page to this book, computer codes to all applications can be downloaded.
Book Description
Derived from the 2001 Santa Fe Institute Conference, "The Economy as an Evolving Complex System III," represents scholarship from the leading figures in th area of economics and complexity. The subject, a perennial centerpiece of the SFI program of studies has gained a wide range of followers for its methods of employing empirical evidence in the development of analytical economic theories. Accordingly, the chapters in this volume addresses a wide variety of issues in the fields of economics and complexity, accessing eclectic techniques from many disciplines, provided that they shed light on the economic problem. Dedicated to Kenneth Arrow on his 80th birthday, this volume honors his many contributions to the Institute. SFI-style economics is regarded as having had an important impact in introducing a new approach to economic analysis.
Book Description
Just as macroeconomic models describe the overall economy within a changing, or dynamic, framework, the models themselves change over time. In this text Stephen J. Turnovsky reviews in depth several early models as well as a representation of more recent models. They include traditional (backward-looking) models, linear rational expectations (future-looking) models, intertemporal optimization models, endogenous growth models, and continuous time stochastic models. The author uses examples from both closed and open economies. Whereas others commonly introduce models in a closed context, tacking on a brief discussion of the model in an open economy, Turnovsky integrates the two perspectives throughout to reflect the increasingly international outlook of the field.
This new edition has been extensively revised. It contains a new chapter on optimal monetary and fiscal policy, and the coverage of growth theory has been expanded substantially. The range of growth models considered has been extended, with particular attention devoted to transitional dynamics and nonscale growth. The book includes cutting-edge research and unpublished data, including much of the author's own work.
Customer Reviews:
Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics.......2000-03-27
Very good Book. Is easy and usefull to read. I recommend read it.
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Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes: 'Rational Expectations' Examined
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
Economic History
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ASIN: 0521310954 |
Book Description
Growing out of a conference on Expectations Formation and Economic Disequilibrium held in New York City in 1981, the papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes in which individual rationality is no guarantee of convergence to the ‘correct’ model and the equilibrium coordination of agents’ plans. They reject the ‘optimality’ argument for the rational expectations hypothesis, opening the door to other hypotheses of optimal expectations of agents in the decentralized market economy.
Book Description
The question addressed in this challenging new book is: What binds societies together and prevents them from disintegrating into chaos and war? Elster analyzes two concepts of social order: stable, predictable patterns of behavior, and cooperative behavior. The book examines various aspects of collective action and bargaining from the perspective of rational choice theory and the theory of social norms. It is a fundamental assumption of the book that social norms provide an important kind of motivation for action that is irreducible to rationality.
Customer Reviews:
Another Junk work for this professor to put on his resume .......2007-08-24
This is a sociology book thats written in dense, deliberately wordy, intended to used on this professors resume to impress employers who probably wouldn't read the book rather flip through it and read a paragraph or two and come to the conclusion that "oh this is technical, he must be very smart", no doubt. Having read this book I can say its junk. Its hard to read and the points the author makes are trivial. Its one of those books you'll only find stashed away in a college library, never to be used or referenced by anyone. 287 pages of paper wasted. Don't waste you're money. It's an expense waste of money.
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The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings from the Front Line
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0262631555 |
Book Description
These twenty-one collected readings describe the origins and growth of the revolutionary approach to macroeconomic analysis known as rational expectations. The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s, when it was viewed by many as radical, to the present, when it has attained a central position in macroeconomic theory and policymaking.
In the 1970s the rational expectations school challenged the traditonal Keynesian view of the world. Economic models built on the ideas of John Maynard Keynes treat the economy more or less as a system of controllable inanimate objects blindly following rules. Models built on the new ideas attempt to acknowledge the ability of humans to change behavior when they expect economic policies to change. The repercussions of this dramatic shift in thought are still being felt among practicing macroeconomic theorists and policymakers.
Much of the research on the rational expectations approach has been done by scholars affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. The readings in this book were all originally published by the Fed, primarily as articles written to be understood by college-level economics students and noneconomist policymakers. Some of the articles are modern classics that are otherwise out of print. Scholars represented here include such prominent economists as Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Edward C. Prescott, Thomas J. Sargent, Michael R. Darby, Finn E. Kydland, Lawrence H. Summers, and Neil Wallace.
The book also includes introductory essays by Preston J. Miller, an economist and Vice President at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Miller explains the context in which the articles were originally published and guides readers through the basic disputes between the old and new macroeconomic approaches.
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Rational Choice
Manufacturer: University of Chicago Press Journals
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0226348598 |
Average customer rating:
- Insightful, but less economics and more psychology
- Interesting Reading
- Fun with bounded rationality
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Modeling Bounded Rationality
Ariel Rubinstein
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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Similar Items:
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Economics and Language
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Notes on the Theory of Choice (Underground Classics in Economics)
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A Course in Game Theory
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Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox
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The Theory of Learning in Games (Economic Learning and Social Evolution)
ASIN: 0262681005 |
Book Description
The notion of bounded rationality was initiated in the 1950s by Herbert Simon; only recently has it influenced mainstream economics. In this book, Ariel Rubinstein defines models of bounded rationality as those in which elements of the process of choice are explicitly embedded. The book focuses on the challenges of modeling bounded rationality, rather than on substantial economic implications.
In the first part of the book, the author considers the modeling of choice. After discussing some psychological findings, he proceeds to the modeling of procedural rationality, knowledge, memory, the choice of what to know, and group decisions.
In the second part, he discusses the fundamental difficulties of modeling bounded rationality in games. He begins with the modeling of a game with procedural rational players and then surveys repeated games with complexity considerations. He ends with a discussion of computability constraints in games. The final chapter includes a critique by Herbert Simon of the author's methodology and the author's response.
The Zeuthen Lecture Book series is sponsored by the Institute of Economics at the University of Copenhagen.
Customer Reviews:
Insightful, but less economics and more psychology.......2004-07-11
Very well written in terms of technical coverage and originality of modelling bounded rationality and its application to game theory. However, the author develops most of his theories from either assumption and speculation or no justification at all in terms of formally depicting human rationality. It would have been a much more powerful book if there was a greater coverage of empirical evidence and bridging between psychology, artificial intelligence and economics. This lop-sided approach of modelling using solely game theoretic terminology and concepts ambiguous in their relevancy to simulating human thought and behaviour. However, there are some chapters, such as the one on knowledge representation and the other on limited memory that are the exception to this. Overall though, the book is still quite innovative and worth a read.
Interesting Reading.......2002-09-14
A very interesting book on an interesting subject. The mathematic is very easy, the thoughts are not, or at least not always.
For anybody interested in this subject, this is good reading material.
Fun with bounded rationality.......2000-04-03
This is a terrific book for anyone who wants to know more about tractable ways to relax the usual economist's assumption of perfect rationality. The book is well written and includes some exercises which would lead an ambitious reader to write his own book on the topic. If you are interested in bounded rationality, this is a book you should own.
Average customer rating:
- It is an excellent book!
- 'Laugh' Lives Up To Its Title
|
Laugh: Portraits of the Greatest Comedians and the Stories They Tell Each Other
William Claxton
Manufacturer: William Morrow & Co
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
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ASIN: 0688158919 |
Book Description
A stirring combination of photography and narrative, Laugh showcases exquisite black-and-white photographs of fifty comedians and captures a previously unseen side of their character as they reveal, in their own words, what amuses them most. Famous for his smoky, soul-rendering photographs of jazz musicians, William Claxton has an intense rapport with his subjects, evident here more than ever as his lens captures the very essence of these entertainers and the place within them where comedy is born.
From contemporary classics like Robin Williams, Billy Crystal, and Dan Aykroyd to the hip and hot--Paul Reiser, Margaret Cho, and Jon Stewart--to Carol Burnett, Carl Reiner, and John Cleese, and others who shaped comedy, the men and women of Laugh dare to be themselves before William Claxton's lens. The stories they tell each other for laughs (from Hollywood humiliation to cheeky children) provide a raucous romp that is as dark as it is wry.
Customer Reviews:
It is an excellent book!.......2000-01-06
A great combination of new portraits and funny stories of my favorite comedians.
'Laugh' Lives Up To Its Title.......1999-12-30
This is, without a doubt, one of the classiest, funniest coffee table tomes I've seen in a long while. William Claxton has always been one of my favorite photographers, and his breathtaking portraits of the great comics herein are pure genius! As for the accompanying stories--funny as hell! I particularly like Dan Aykroyd's witty tale about his toilet paper-tossing father, and Andy Dick's outrageously blue, passive-aggressive tirade contending he's definitely NOT a comedian.
The eclectic mix of personalities in 'Laugh' covers all the bases. If you remember Sid Caesar from 'Your Show of Shows,' he's in here. And if you prefer the avant garde stylings of Bob Odenkirk and David Cross of HBO's 'Mr. Show,' 'Laugh's' got them as well.
In short, great idea, great book. So great, in fact, that I recently gave away ten copies as Christmas gifts. 'Tis the season to be jolly, right? And ain't no book jollier than this one.
Books:
- Listening
- Listening
- Macroeconomics: A Contemporary Introduction (with InfoTrac®)
- Macroeconomics: A Contemporary Introduction (with InfoTrac®)
- Managerial Communication: Strategies and Applications
- Managing Paraeducators in Your School: How to Hire, Train, and Supervise Non-Certified Staff
- Microeconomic Theory: An Integrated Approach
- Neal Whitten's Let's Talk! More No-Nonsense Advice for Project Success
- Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2002-2003 Edition
- Op Amps: Design, Application, and Troubleshooting
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Time Series Analysis
