Book Description
Selected by the Times Literary Supplement as one of the "hundred most influential books since the war"
How can we benefit from the promise of government while avoiding the threat it poses to individual freedom? In this classic book, Milton Friedman provides the definitive statement of his immensely influential economic philosophy—one in which competitive capitalism serves as both a device for achieving economic freedom and a necessary condition for political freedom. The result is an accessible text that has sold well over half a million copies in English, has been translated into eighteen languages, and shows every sign of becoming more and more influential as time goes on.
Customer Reviews:
The Godfather of the Libertarian Movement.......2007-09-17
An absolute classic work in the areas of Laissez Faire economics and libertarianism. While not everyone in the libertarian movement idolizes Dr. Friedman, his work was written in such a clear and accessible way that it introduced classical liberalism to a generation of people in the 1960's, who were big government Keynesians. Friedman fought for individual liberty, and while he wasn't an anarcho-capitalist by any means and sometimes uses government to solve problems, he is still the godfather of the libertarian movement and the libertarian movement would not be where it is today without Dr. Friedman.
The Hobo Philosopher.......2007-09-14
I hate to be so outspoken on a review of a book. But I find this gentleman elemental, childish and silly. On top of all of that I do not believe that he is entirely sincere. This man was a statistician and "accountant" not a theoretician. He actually won the Nobel Prize. This I find very hard to believe. I have not given up on him though. But I have yet to find anything that he has written that I can get past the introduction. The more I read of what he has to say the worse it gets.
More Capitalist Rhetoric.......2007-08-07
Clearly he overlooks the basic concepts of political economy in an effort to advocate for capitalist societies. Moreover, he fails to confront the basic questions of inequality which is characteristic in capitalist societies.
Friedman asserts that communism and socialism are mere tools of totalitarian regimes as if he's even attempted to study marx. This book is extremely lopsided and narrow in its praise for a system that has accounted for much pain in the world.
If your looking for a balanced intellectual perspective, look else where. However, I will recommend this book after gaining a true foundation on the study of political economy; try Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Locke, James Mill, Keynes, Proudhon, Ricardo, Owen, Engels, etc.
Like him or not - important to know.......2007-07-26
Overview / Review: Milton Friedman, like him or hate him, is an essential economic theorist to tackle if one is interested in that field or in theories of economic justice. Having a progressive bias, I disagree strongly with many Friedman's theories. Having said that, for anyone interested in getting the essentials of his "liberal" (used in the older, more classic sense) economic views would do well to read this book. Friedman is opposed to state intervention in individual freedom, so many see Friedman as a modern counterpart to Adam Smith. Friedman advocates a free-market economy, with minimal taxation and government interference, because he believes the free market approach assures the greatest measure of freedom, justice, and overall affluence. Many modern conservatives have echoed the arguments he makes herein.
Friedman is actually convincing in his review on a few counts - the abuse of licensure, the problems of tax loopholes, and the fact that there are frequent shortcomings of the well-intended social welfare state. Having said that, however, Friedman does seem unduly biased in favor of a society so individualistic it is therefore almost atomistic, with little to no social cohesion. Some of his arguments are more assertions and claims than full-blown arguments, and one wishes he had addressed major issues in more detail (perhaps he does elsewhere). The book's virtue is that it is brief, but its weakness is also that its arguments are often too brief, and too compact. Karl Marx for example, has many faults in his theory that can be found, but Friedman too casually blows off Marx in about one page of analysis (Chapter 10, p. 167-8). Friedman's argument for a very limited government, and against socialism/communism, would have been more convincing if he had devoted a full chapter to Marx for one, and more attention to other matters of social justice, inequality, and oppression.
In a nutshell: this book encapsulates Friedman's "liberal" or laissez-faire approach to a wide range of issues on economics, government, and capitalism. The free individual is given utmost importance, and government that governs best is that which governs (or interferes) least in his Friedman's view. Not convincing from the standpoint of those interested in progressive social justice (Niebuhr's views on selfishness and power are more cogent), but essential to read and analyze if one is interested in economics and ethics.
Brilliant.......2007-07-05
Friedman was America's preeminent economists that explained the connection between Political and Economic freedom without the signature econo-techno-babble that is the vernacular of lesser economists. This book should be REQUIRED reading for all high school, or at the very least, college students. I enjoyed it immensely and will be wary of "too many dollars chasing too few goods"!
Book Description
This exciting text provides students with a superior grounding in contemporary international political economy. It emphasizes current scholarship and provides the background in politics, economics, and history that students need to understand the contemporary global economy.
Customer Reviews:
readable textbook.......2007-02-14
This textbook was easy to read (not overly technical and used a lot of real-world analogies). An instuctor or professor who requires this text is probably taking a practical approach to the course, which typically means it will be more interesting to learn about the subject matter. The text is only in paperback and not particularly durable for backpack toting- buy used if possible.
Just great.......2007-01-10
First the book appears to be full of ideas without a touch of reality or just theoretical, but after reading the first and second chapter and after understanding the principles of econ 101/102, everything will make sense. There is so much to learn in this book and, the good thing, it is not boring.
I have to say that it was the best political econ book I've ever read, and I do recommend it for beginners.
gives an understanding of the many forms of globalisation.......2006-09-28
Oatley provides a readable, non-mathematical description of international economics since World War 2. The book will give the reader a good grounding in understanding globalisation. Not as something to be feared or tamed, but as arising from fundamental trends that are effectively impossible to reverse.
Oatley certainly talks about more than just globalisation. Like managing exchange rates. But even here, it is discussed in the context and reality of a world where immense pools of capital are often highly mobile. This is not typically thought of by the general public as globalisation. But the text shows that capital flow across national boundaries is indeed another aspect of globalisation, that has become common in the last 20 years.
coherent and concise.......2006-05-05
Oatley has a way of boiling down complex concepts into short, pithy chapters. The writing is clear and concise and the examples used in the text provide interesting perspectives on current political issues such as the US budget deficit or the power dynamics in debt negotiations between powerful international creditors (IMF, World Bank) and debtor countries. The chapters are well structured--with introductions and conclusions that really help draw out the key points of the chapter. I found that this book provided coherent theories with which I could better understand material from other political science and economics classes. Overall, I highly recommend it.
Well researched and excellently written.......2006-04-14
Thomas Oatley has written a brilliant historic piece of literature. He uses great examples to explain difficult concepts and leaves you with a comprehensive understanding of the topic. I found this book to be paramount in my undestanding of today's current debates on the US Trade Policy, our deficit, etc.
I highly recommend this book to anyone who is interested in Political Economics, Economics, or just wants to learn about our economic and trade policy
5 Stars: Great Job!
Average customer rating:
- Calculations are only as good as your numbers
- Pants on fire?
- Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed.
- Very Interesting
- History as Science Fiction
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History: Fiction or Science? (Chronology, No. 1)
Anatoly Fomenko
Manufacturer: Mithec
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Similar Items:
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History: Fiction or Science? Chronology 2 (Chronology)
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History: Fiction or Science? Astronomical methods as applied to chronology. Ptolemy's Almagest. Chronology III
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ASIN: 2913621058 |
Book Description
Recorded history is a finely-woven magic fabric of intricate lies about events predating the sixteenth century. There is not a single piece of evidence that can be reliably and independently traced back earlier than the eleventh century. This book details events that are substantiated by hard facts and logic, and validated by new astronomical research and statistical analysis of ancient sources.
Customer Reviews:
Calculations are only as good as your numbers.......2007-08-03
Yes, we can all agree that mainstream history is nearly 100% BS due to politics, economics, ego, problems with dating techniques, and various conspiracies. Agreed. But, I've been researching the distinct possibility that human history (in terms of civilizations) are much more ancient than we've been told, so coming across this book was very interesting to me. I wondered how Fomenko could be wrong (if at all) because he is very persuasive in his presentations. Then it dawned on me. If at previous times in prehistory, due to the various catastrophies that are well documented (comets, asteroids, planetary disruptions, plasma discharge, pole reversals, etc) the Earth was in a different position in relation to the sun, different tilt on its axis, different orbit, different rotation (in terms of velocity and DIRECTION), and the continents were in different positions, then would this not cause the ancients to see the sky (constellations) differently? In other words, is Fomenko making erronious assumptions about the physics of the Earth in pre-history, which then corrupt his data with regards to dating the relevant astrology? The last event to seriously disrupt our planet occured roughly 3500 years ago, according to other good researchers, so is it possible Fomenko has been confused by this? The vastly different physics of our planet in the not so distant past may explain this confusion, which is not to say the "mainstream" version of history is correct; on the contrary. I am not an expert in these fields, but wanted to see if this idea could spark discussion.
Pants on fire?.......2007-07-19
Will people ever read before spamming? Yes, Jesuits could not rewrite world history alone, they had help. Anyway, Dr Prof Acad A.Fomenko does not point to jesuits as the driving force of world wide history manipulation in published volumes 1,2,3;, actually he barely mentions the poor devils. Check it with 'Search inside' feature, please. China is rarely mentioned either, in fact, Dr Fomenko is completely eurocentric. Right, his theory contradicts all mainstream schools of history, because in their actual state they are all built on blatantly erroneus chronology. You don't need a mysterious cabal (conspiracy) to falsify history, the falsification is its modus operandi. It is inherent to history(ians) to falsify (distort) events, as it is inherent to humans to boast as it is inherent to power (authority) to legimize itself by referrring to glorious past made to its own order. Dr Prof Fomenko and team have identified scores of instances of such manipulation in Russian, European, etc.. history, and delivered valid statistical proof thereof. His own 'reconstruction' is completely another story. Forget c14 as a valid method of dating. W.Libby has initially discovered a brilliant method of INDEPENDENT dating. Too bad, c14 method has become a joke after a forced marrige with dendrochronology with consensual chronological scale inbuilt. Radiocarbon method can't stand blind tests, but is so very productive as a rubberstamp.
Accepted History & Chronology Must Be Changed. .......2007-04-09
There is no doubt that history as most know it is a sham, & institution's version of History both University & Church is fradulent & inaccurate. Everything was established with an agenda, The real "Dark Ages" are now when we have access to incredible amounts of information past authorities & more important 'common folk' didn't have but our institutions & educators are slow to evolve because of what has ignorantly & arrogantly been taught for too long. This is on many subjects not just Chronology.
For anyone to question "Why would a Mathematician have anything credible to say of History?" The answer is from Dr. Fomenko's preface in the book: "It would be worthwhile to remind the reader that in the XVI-XVII century Chronology was considered to be a subdivision of Mathematics." These volumes could possibly be some of the most important works to date & should be read by everyone with an interest in History, especially professors & educators who have a duty to the public. I have read both books & must say that 'Chronology 1' has some very eye opening & revolutionary information. Even if these volumes are part true the implications are profound & opens the doors to further investigations & questions which must be done. I speak several different lanquages & must say the logic Dr. Fomenko uses with "inflection" of words & words being read from left to right in one region & right to left in another then written backwards, the removal of vowels & get down to basics of words, or different cities & locations having the same name etc. is correct. Vowel usage has always been optional & varied, actually complicating linquistics & study. The first thing one has to understand is that words never had a fixed spelling in history like we do now, the spelling of words was mutable & regional, as well as names & titles of people were vast, varied & changed, NOTHING WAS FIXED or understood linear. Matters of Life & Death as well as financial profiteering yesterday & today were & are made with ignorant, illogical & conspiratorial views of history & reality, it's time people get closer to the Truth & society collectively grow up.
Very Interesting.......2007-03-07
It is a good proposal and I believe it will mature into something even better in the future. I think it deserves to be read.
History as Science Fiction.......2007-01-10
Anatoly Fomenko has written a very intriguing book, full of pictures, charts, and computer 'proof' of his thesis: backwards of AD900 we don't really know what happened or when. Between AD900 and AD1600 there is more certainty, but there is still a lot of fuzzy ground, and things don't get reliable until we get past the 1600's where the printing press made it very difficult for the perpetrators of this timeline manipulation to change anything that had been committed to print. The Dark Ages did not happen. Books were burned for a reason. One organization has doubled the actual length of its existence by expanding the real chronology. Read why.
I had always wondered why Christ died about AD33 and yet men waited until the 11th century to form the Knights Templar, the Cathars, etc and go after the Holy Land by force. Why the 1000 year gap? Turns out there wasn't more than a 10-12 year gap and he proves it using astronomy. This also implies that the planet is not as old as we have been told, and current Christian and other creationist scientists are already championing that idea without being aware of Fomenko's book. The two groups, creationist scientists and the Russian mathematical analysts corroborate each other. Fascinating.
Of course, all this flies in the face of what we have been told traditionally is the 'proper' chronology of western civilization, and most readers will experience 'cognitive dissonance' in reading this book. It means that our history going backwards from AD1600 becomes progressively more incorrect and unreliable until it cannot be trusted at all... in the space of 700-800 years.
Naturally, the curious, open-minded reader will want to know WHO did this, WHY, and did any of the events we think of as really ancient ever happen?
Dr. Fomenko is a respected scientist/mathematician at Moscow State University who has already answered these questions to the satisfaction of his initially skeptical colleagues. Most of them are now believers, a few still refuse to believe (the usual diehards), and of course the western press has ignored Fomenko's work -- for obvious reasons when you read the book. The ones who perpetrated this chronology ruse have a lot to answer for. They are still with us. That's why this book is a well-kept secret.
I gave the book a 4-star rating because I was unable to check out some of his claims; those I checked were as he said. But if even 1/3 of his claims are true, this punches a big hole in what we think is our history, the meaning of western civilization, our educational process (for repeating the ruse as gospel), and the trustworthiness of the organization that perpetrated this ruse, well-intentioned or not.
This book relates to current research into a Young Earth paradigm, to John Keel's discoveries about our planet, and Fr Malachi Martin's insights (in his now out-of-print books). We are indeed sheep who are manipulated and kept ignorant -- for a reason. While knowing what these men have to say may be the "booby prize" (as in: 'what can you do with this knowledge?'), it will provide interesting reading. Didn't someone say: "...and the Truth will set you free."?? For you to judge if this book contains the truth.
Book Description
This up-to-date book provides a balanced, in-depth background to main IPE theoretical approaches, examines IPE issues in historical perspective, and discusses domestic-international linkages.
Managing the Global Economy Since World War II: The Institutional Framework; The Realist Perspective; The Liberal Perspective; The Historical Structuralist Perspective; International Monetary Relations; Foreign Debt; Global Trade Relations; Regionalism and Global Trade Regime; Multinational Corporations and Global Production; International Development; Current Trends in the Global Political Economy.
Anyone interested in international political economy.
Customer Reviews:
Great introductory text!.......2006-12-05
Theodore H. Cohn's "Global Political Economy: Theory and Practice" is an excellent primer to the study of international political economy (IPE). This text covers the main theoretical approaches to IPE and provides fairly detailed accounts of several issues such as "International Monetary Relations", debt, trade, regionalism, MNC's, international development and a brief section on globalization. I used this book for an undergrad. IPE course about a year ago and I find myself constantly referring back to it, mostly for an overview of a subject. The most valuable component of this book is the reference section at the end of each chapter. Cohn has excellent sources that are invaluable for those who wish to pursue a certain theoretical perspective as well as a specific issue. These citations were particularly helpful when writing research papers. Overall, this is an outstanding beginners text in the subject of IPE.
Excellent if wordy.......2004-10-02
I have used this book over the past few years in an introductory course on International Politics. The organization of the book is quite ideal for this purpose as the paradigms used in IR (Realism, Liberalism, and Structuralism) are used in the presentation of ways to approach the study of International Political Economy. In addition, there is a useful overview of the Bretton Woods Institutions (IMF, IBRD, etc.) and chapters on IPE topics, such as currency exchange and debt. The only concern that I have had with this text is its growing wordiness, as each edition (now in its 3rd) is released. Undergraduates rarely have the patience for wading through pages of text, particularly on topics such as economics! With that caveat (for which I have only a limited sympathy) I would say the book is one of the best availbable on the subject.
Good Introduction & Reference.......2003-06-17
A great reference and introduction to the topic for students unfamiliar with the terrain (like me).
Despite it's heavy title this text simply and clearly introduces you to the global players and what they do. It then provides an overview of how they are seen by realists (the right), liberals (the free trade proponents), and historical structuralists (the left). It then provides an invaluable overview of major themes in the world economy and offers an impressively unbiased analysis of how people with different perspectives and organizations with different agendas view and respond to these themes.
If you really want to start to understand how global trade is facilitated (and hindered), and are willing to exert the energy to take a deeper look, then use this book to learn about the World Bank, UN (United Nations), IMF (International Monetary Fund), MNCs(Multinationl Companies), Foreign Debt, International Development, Capital Flows and Controls, etc.
Though filled with acronyms and the topics are heavy the book is a surprisingly friendly read. Readers are properly introduced to the international actors and agencies before they are discussed. There is even a glossary at the back in case you forget that SPARTECA is the South Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Cooperation Agreement. =)
While obviously not a casual read, it is a surprisingly captivating read if you have any desire to learn about globalization and the shepparding of the world economy (the shepards still have A LOT to learn).
As with any good book, after reading this book you will be attracted to articles you never even looked at before. Even more amazingly, you will completely understand them.
Book Description
What determines the size and form of redistributive programs, the extent and type of public goods provision, the burden of taxation across alternative tax bases, the size of government deficits, and the stance of monetary policy during the course of business and electoral cycles? A large and rapidly growing literature in political economics attempts to answer these questions. But so far there is little consensus on the answers and disagreement on the appropriate mode of analysis.
Combining the best of three separate traditions--the theory of macroeconomic policy, public choice, and rational choice in political science--Torsten Persson and Guido Tabellini suggest a unified approach to the field. As in modern macroeconomics, individual citizens behave rationally, their preferences over economic outcomes inducing preferences over policy. As in public choice, the delegation of policy decisions to elected representatives may give rise to agency problems between voters and politicians. And, as in rational choice, political institutions shape the procedures for setting policy and electing politicians. The authors outline a common method of analysis, establish several new results, and identify the main outstanding problems.
Customer Reviews:
The best Political Science AND Economics book.......2003-04-08
The authors understand that the study of political institutions drives political science and apply economic principles to do this methodologically. This book evaluates various political institutions in their barest forms and derives intuitive results for their expected performance using elementary economic modelling techniques. The book logically extends its arguments and provides interesting normative evaluations as well. The authors are pioneers in what they do, but, unfortunately, are not likely to be accepted as mainstream political scientists.
Book Description
Allan H. Meltzer's monumental history of the Federal Reserve System tells the story of one of America's most influential but least understood public institutions. This first volume covers the period from the Federal Reserve's founding in 1913 through the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord of 1951, which marked the beginning of a larger and greatly changed institution.
To understand why the Federal Reserve acted as it did at key points in its history, Meltzer draws on meeting minutes, correspondence, and other internal documents (many made public only during the 1970s) to trace the reasoning behind its policy decisions. He explains, for instance, why the Federal Reserve remained passive throughout most of the economic decline that led to the Great Depression, and how the Board's actions helped to produce the deep recession of 1937 and 1938. He also highlights the impact on the institution of individuals such as Benjamin Strong, governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the 1920s, who played a key role in the adoption of a more active monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Meltzer also examines the influence the Federal Reserve has had on international affairs, from attempts to build a new international financial system in the 1920s to the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 that established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and the failure of the London Economic Conference of 1933.
Written by one of the world's leading economists, this magisterial biography of the Federal Reserve and the people who helped shape it will interest economists, central bankers, historians, political scientists, policymakers, and anyone seeking a deep understanding of the institution that controls America's purse strings.
"It was 'an unprecedented orgy of extravagance, a mania for speculation, overextended business in nearly all lines and in every section of the country.' An Alan Greenspan rumination about the irrational exuberance of the late 1990s? Try the 1920 annual report of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve. . . . To understand why the Fed acted as it did—at these critical moments and many others—would require years of study, poring over letters, the minutes of meetings and internal Fed documents. Such a task would naturally deter most scholars of economic history but not, thank goodness, Allan Meltzer."—Wall Street Journal
"A seminal work that anyone interested in the inner workings of the U. S. central bank should read. A work that scholars will mine for years to come."—John M. Berry, Washington Post
"An exceptionally clear story about why, as the ideas that actually informed policy evolved, things sometimes went well and sometimes went badly. . . . One can only hope that we do not have to wait too long for the second installment."—David Laidler, Journal of Economic Literature
"A thorough narrative history of a high order. Meltzer's analysis is persuasive and acute. His work will stand for a generation as the benchmark history of the world's most powerful economic institution. It is an impressive, even awe-inspiring achievement."—Sir Howard Davies, Times Higher Education Supplement
Customer Reviews:
Not for the layman.......2003-12-12
This much heralded account of the Federal Reserve is justly lauded in academic circles because Meltzer brings forth many Fed documents which have long been buried away and unavailable to scholars. He is able to pursue step-by-step Fed actions and relate what happened in all those many meetings behind closed doors. Through the mass of information he has uncovered and his own in-depth knowledge of monetary policy and the Fed, he is able to bring new facts to light and correct previous interpretations that are more often than not those of Friedman and Schwartz's A Monetary History of the United States.
The weaknesses of Meltzer's book stem from his massive archive of information and the strength of his predecessors. The sheer volume of information he is trying to convey prompts the narrative to drift and the reader sometimes loses the point. And, as a good academic historian, he is engaged in a dialogue with other historians of the Fed and monetary policy that can push the layman to the sidelines. Meltzer's history assumes the reader has a rather advanced knowledge of economics and finance such as an understanding of the real bills doctrine and the operation of an international gold standard. Also, the charts and tables are often not very helpful in understanding the text or at least could have been presented in a better manner.
Overall, Meltzer does not produce any stunning revelations but a great many correctives to previous accounts and much added detail. The novice to the history of US monetary policy would do better to read Richard Timberlake's book (though taken with a grain of salt because of its conservative leanings) or the classic work by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz.
Amazon.com
Julian L. Simon is the world's greatest contrarian. The Ultimate Resource 2--an update, not a sequel, despite the title--skewers the sacred cows of environmentalism, population control, and Paul Ehrlich. In the contest between resource scarcity and human ingenuity, Simon bets the farm on the ability of intelligent people to overcome their problems. Thankfully, he is not a theorist. This book lays out convincing empirical evidence for Simon's prediction of a prosperous future. The key to progress is not state-run conservation programs, he says, but economic and political freedom. Only then can talented minds properly apply themselves to our earthly dilemmas.
Book Description
Arguing that the ultimate resource is the human imagination coupled to the human spirit, Julian Simon led a vigorous challenge to conventional beliefs about scarcity of energy and natural resources, pollution of the environment, the effects of immigration, and the "perils of overpopulation." The comprehensive data, careful quantitative research, and economic logic contained in the first edition of The Ultimate Resource questioned widely held professional judgments about the threat of overpopulation, and Simon's celebrated bet with Paul Ehrlich about resource prices in the 1980s enhanced the public attention--both pro and con--that greeted this controversial book.
Now Princeton University Press presents a revised and expanded edition of The Ultimate Resource. The new volume is thoroughly updated and provides a concise theory for the observed trends: Population growth and increased income put pressure on supplies of resources. This increases prices, which provides opportunity and incentive for innovation. Eventually the innovative responses are so successful that prices end up below what they were before the shortages occurred. The book also tackles timely issues such as the supposed rate of species extinction, the "vanishing farmland crisis," and the wastefulness of coercive recycling.
In Simon's view, the key factor in natural and world economic growth is our capacity for the creation of new ideas and contributions to knowledge. The more people alive who can be trained to help solve the problems that confront us, the faster we can remove obstacles, and the greater the economic inheritance we shall bequeath to our descendants. In conjunction with the size of the educated population, the key constraint on human progress is the nature of the economic-political system: talented people need economic freedom and security to bring their talents to fruition.
Customer Reviews:
Simon research is revealing and a joy too study!.......2006-08-02
The engineering process for forecasting scarcity is as follows: 1. Estimate the presently known physical quantity of the 2. Extrapolate the future rate of use from the current use rate; and 3. Subtract the successive estimates of use in from inventory.
The economic process for forecasting is as follows: 1. ask whether there is any convincing reason to think that the period for which you are forecasting will be different from the past, going back as far as the data will allow; 2. if there is no good reason to reject the past trend as representative of the future as well, ask whether there is a reasonable explanation for the observed trend; 3. if there is no reason to believe that the future will be different than from the past, and if you have a solid explanation for the trend-or even if you lack a solid theory, but the data are overwhelming-project the trend into the future.
There is a wide disparity between engineering and economic forecasting. "Prediction is always a leap of faith; there is no scientific guarantee from past to future. The correctness of an assumption that what happened in the past will similarly happen in the future rests on your wise judgment and knowledge of your subject matter." "A prediction based on past data is sound if it is sensible to assume that the past and the future belong to the same statistical universe, that is, if you can expect conditions that held in the past to remain the same in the future. Ask yourself, "have conditions changed in recent years in such manner that the data on natural resources generated over the many past decades are no longer relevant."
The costs of natural resources have been steadily declining. Another way of thinking about costs is the proportion of ones total income to get them. This measure reveals a steady decline. "This trend makes it clear that the cost of minerals-even if it becomes considerably higher, which we have no reason to expect-is almost irrelevant to our standard of living, and hence an increased scarcity of mineral is not a great danger to our peacetime standard of living.
World reserves do not go down they even go up. The anti-intuitive conclusion is that even as we use coal and oil and iron and other natural resources, they are becoming less scarce.
As soon as information about an impending scarcity becomes known and accepted, people begin buying the commodity; they bid up the present market price until it reflects the expected future scarcity. In 1973, Japanese overreacted to OPEC supply manipulation. "The Japanese, and above all Japanese officialdom, were seized by hysteria in 1974 when raw materials shortages were cropping up everywhere. They bought and bought and bought (copper, iron, pulp, sulfur, and coking coal). Now they are frantically trying to get out of commitments to take delivery, and have slashed raw materials imports nearly in half. Even so, industrial inventories are bulging with high-priced raw materials." Japan paid heavy for the blunder. Mineral resources will not rise in real price but only adjust for inflation.
The prophecies of "Limits to Growth" are false. Interestingly, China attempted to control growth resulting in millions starving. The Chinese chose to start having babies. The Chinese government responded with force and implemented a policy of one child per family. A political scientist discussing the relationship of resources to national security refers to the "incontrovertible fact that many crucial resources are nonrenewable". "The assumption of finiteness indubitably misleads many scientific forecasters because their conclusions follow inexorably from that assumption. Limits to Growth gives this false doctrine, "The world model is based on the fundamental assumption that there is an upper limit to the total amount of food that can be produced annually by the world's agricultural system". John Maynard Keynes doctrine of diminishing returns implied an assertion impending scarcity in Europe. "Law of diminishing returns" fails because there is no law that compels cost to rise. Technology advancements mitigate the effects of diminishing returns when applied to costs.
Price is the key. Low prices cause innovation. Innovation reduces inefficiency. Increased efficiency improves discovery of new resources or a substitute process or commodity: Kerosene for oil, electricity for steam, and possibility hydrogen for hydro. Future generations will be better off for the discovery. Heighten scarcity causes prices to rise. The higher prices present opportunity and prompt investors and entrepreneurs to search for solutions. In a free society solutions are eventually found.
Infinite resource. "Even if energy is the relevant constraint for fabricating new kinds of raw materials, on would need to take into account, at the very least, all the mass/energy in the solar system. This amount is so huge relative to our use of energy, even by many multiples of the present population and many multiples of the present rate of individual use, that the end of the solar system in seven billion years or whenever would hardly be affected by our energy use now."
Man has a strong propensity towards creation rather than destruction. We can expect a positive preponderance of creativity over our exploitative activities. We are not at a turning point of destruction. Instead there is a reliable long-term pattern of non-scarcity exists.
The "Population Bomb" is erroneous, "the battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines-hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death". Food production is so complete that if government subsidies did not artificially hold up the prices then food prices would drop to lower levels. More food is grown on less land and with less labor. Erosion losses are mitigated, as farmers move towards flat land agriculture. Flat land is farmed using large equipment, automated irrigation systems, and better fertilizers. Economy of scale increases supply. Food production in the US could be immediately enlarged if the government stopped paying farmers to keep idle land. The price of wheat has fallen adjusted for inflation even as the world demand for wheat increased. "Food supply increased because of agricultural knowledge resulting from research and development that was induced by the increased demand, together with the improved ability of farmers to get their produce to market on better transportation." All-important historical trends point towards cheaper food. Famines were caused by government policies: 1958 Chinese famine (30 million died) and 1930s Ukranians (7 million died), and Africa and Somolia distribution breakdowns and warlord profiteering. In 1991, China had reversed its scarcity problems and was shipping grain and meat to the Soviets. India can vastly improve its food production and seek to match Japan and Taiwan food production levels. Better storage would reduce waste to pests by 15-20 percent. In short run costs increase, but in the long run population pressures reduce costs.
Hydroponics is sufficiently practical that one supermarket has built a 10,000 sq ft vegetable garden. Phytofarm in Dekalb, Illinois produces mainly lettuce and other garden vegetables in a factory measuring 200 by 250 feet, at a rate of a ton of food per day, enough to completely feed 500 to 1000 people. Energy from artifical light is the key raw material in state-of-the-art hydroponics. Even at present electricity costs, PhytoFarm is profitable, and its food prices are affordable at ordinary American incomes. The entire present population of the world could be supplied with a square area about 140 miles on a side. Phytofarm techniques could feed a hundred times the world present population, say 500 billion people, on 1 percent of present farmland.
Fish farms have begun to produce at or near competitive prices. The main obstacle to a rapid increase in aquaculture costs and hence is that wild fish are too cheap to invite competition. Aquaculture capacity can be expanded almost indefinitely.
We believe too much bad news. We need to have more faith in free markets and innovation. Land is almost irrelevant to food production.
The sharp rise in the 1970s provides an illustrative case history of government intervention in the energy market. Conventional experts predicted a continued rise to say $3 a barrel by 1990s. The 1979 OPEC prices rise were the result of cartel agreements and not extraction cost increases. If one wants to know about he world's capacity to produce oil, the appropriate indicator is the cost of production and transportation and for oil the cost remains a small portion of the production costs. During the energy crisis the cost of oil did not raise at all and it remain 1 percent of the selling price of crude. The energy prices to the consumer had been falling continually. In the face of world-wide surplus of oil, Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC nations cut their oil production by 10 percent. "Still another waste due to false energy scares was the $15 billion thrown away on the development of synthetic fuels." "Government price-regulation system had the effect of supporting the OPEC cartel's price-fixing power and subsidizing member countries operations". The government measures harmed the consumer causing short-run shortages and long-run diminishing supply.
When OPEC boosted the price of oil in 1973, the price of uranium began to jump from $8 to $53 a ton within three years. This meant that Westinghouse might accrue losses of perhaps $2 billion. At the same time Gulf Oil together with the Canadian government and other producers of uranium got together to keep the price of uranium high.
Stick to the arguments.......2006-03-26
One reviewer below, apparently without any pause to shift gears manages to write:
"The poor quality of the critics' arguments, along with their ad hominem attacks, reveals why environmentalist doomsaying is a sad, pathetic, quasi-religion that bitterly opposes examining the facts."
Assuming he or she knows what 'ad hominem' means, this shows just how hard it is to stay objective when the stakes are so high.
Sebb
What would Simon say now?.......2005-11-06
Julian Simon won a famous ten-year-long bet with Paul Erlich regarding the prices of certain resources in the 1980's, which Simon predicted would decline in real terms. If Simon hadn't died a few years ago and he had made a similar set of bets with someone starting in 1995 for resources like Atlantic cod, copper, nickel, natural gas in North America and petroleum, by 2005 he would have lost, and spectacularly so. Apparently Simon's model for "unlimited" resources has begun to break down. The increasingly strained world oil supply shows that throwing more ingenuity and money at a resource problem can't always solve it. For example, despite having access to petroleum and natural gas from the North Sea, with the double-digit decline in North Sea output the British government has plans for _rationing_ fossil fuels this winter (2005-06) in the event of prolonged frigid weather.
And why do people keep referring to the Simon/Ehrlich bet any way? It doesn't follow from that contest that things haven't gone awry now.
As for the reviewer who blames government regulations and environmentalists for our current resource constraints, consider the following:
1. The world consumes a billion barrels of oil every 12 days or so at the current rate, up by 20 percent from a decade ago. If environmentalists and government regulators have tried to interfere with the growth of this flow of petroleum, they have clearly failed.
2. Much of our oil comes from parts of the world with few or no environmental restrictions. Even within the U.S., people along the Gulf Coast live with a level of petroleum-derived pollution and environmental damage that the rest of the country wouldn't tolerate.
3. Evolutionary psychologists will tell you that when people experience economic anxiety, they often blame other tribes for the resource problems they helped to cause themselves. If you feel anxious about having to pay twice as much for natural gas or gasoline as you did a couple years ago, look in the mirror for the reason instead of blaming caricatures from the Right's demonology.
Simon would still win today.......2005-10-16
If you examine the history of all "resources" you discover that they do become cheaper and more abundant over time. Why? In the better book, The Unltimate Resource, Simon goes into much more in depth research and analysis. The human mind is the "Ultimate Resource."
Lets take one example, copper. Copper was heavily used in the telecommunictions industry as well as in electronics. But the heavier user was in telecommunications. All of the scare about copper running out was nonsense in many ways. But the way that no ideologically driven socialist/environmentalist ever considers is through invention and innovation. The invention of fiber optical cable eliminated millions of tons worth of copper phone lines. Optical cable is made out of sand, the most abundant resource on the planet. We will never run out. Then consider that nano-technology is already working on making a nano fiber that will conduct electricity. Nano fibers are made out of carbon, THE most abundant resource in the universe! As soon as that work is finished, millions of tons of copper overhead electrical and underground cable will be recycled. Coppers price will go down again, and its abundance will increase. Humans continue to do this, create something that has never existed before and increase the abundance of all resources.
Lets also recognize that it was the discovery of petroleum oil and its production that saved the whales, as it made the whaling fleets obsolete. Wihtin a few years the whaling towns of boston and maine went mostly bust. Whaling was expensive and dangerous. Petroleum oil, not whale oil then became the lubricant of the industrial revolution. Lets think about photography and silver. All film was silver intensive. With the advent of digital photography, now including digital x-rays! All of the silver and all of the chemicals once needed are not needed any longer. This now frees up that resource! Every advance in technology eventually replaces the lower, least productive and least efficient technology. It is an ongoing evolutionary process!
The difference between Dr. Simon and the green left is one of basic philosohpy. He and those like him believe in humanity and humanities incredible capabilities and the detractors do not. Is the glass half empty or half full is not a cogent arguement as long as one side [the green communists] stops up the mouth of the glass and allows no new water into the glass.
If you can stop all invovation and sustain humanity then yes, all resources will eventually run out! That is the main point.
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
M. A. Plus "Advanced Atheist"
<
<"Apparently Simon's model for "unlimited" resources has begun to break down. The increasingly strained world oil supply shows that throwing more ingenuity and money at a resource problem can't always solve it." >>
what bunk!
What Simon's critics never include in their "devanced" calculus is the factor of government interference in the markets through burdensome regulation. Environmental regulations, prohibitions on drilling, mining etc has caused an artificial shortage in these resources. These Enviro-morons have missed Simon et al's arguement. That given a free market and indivudals left alone to persue their "self" interesst all resources would drop in price and increase in abundance. Simon would win again if "environmentlaly safe" mining, drilling and exploration was allowed in and around the continental united states and throughout the world.
It is the artifical shortages cuased by enviro-socialism that makes it apear to the intellectually shallow, as if resources are increasing in scarcity and are going up in price.
Are you kidding me?.......2005-09-23
More frightening than Simon's non-sensical conclusions are the number of other reviewers who actually buy what Simon says. Here's one example of Simon's gross mischaracterization of scientifically accepted limits to our planet.
Simon suggests that we have infinite material and energy resources because the earth is an open system. Wrong! The earth scientifically accepted to be a closed system materially (save the odd meteor). This means that matter on earth is finite (a word Simon hates), and that it cycles through our ecological and geological systems.
The earth is an open system in terms of energy, because it receives a steady stream of energy from the sun. However, this in not infinite either, in a practical sense. Sure, we can consider it infinite in the sense that the flow will last billions of years, but the level of the flow is finite. If someone promised you $1000 a month for a million years, you wouldn't be a millionaire. You'd still have to budget that $1000 each month. That's what the earth does with the flow of energy from the sun. Therefore, to achieve sustainability, we must be able to exist with a finite level of material and energy resources.
Simon responds to this scientific reality by quoting Stephen Hawking about the infinite universe. No argument here. The universe may well be infinite, but the fact that we can't quite comprehend the outer limits of our universe has little bearing on our earthly supplies of energy and drinking water, for example. Simon tries to circumvent scientific reality with academic-sounding slight of hand, and he made a lot of money preaching his "good news" to those who don't want to hear anything else. Don't fall for it.
Still, this is worth reading just to be aware of the slop that Simon (and Bjorn Lomborg, Simon's predecessor)are trying to pass off as science.
Book Description
TheOxford Handbooks of Political Science is a ten-volume set of reference books offering authoritative and engaging critical overviews of the state of political science. Each volume focuses on a particular part of the discipline, with volumes on Public Policy, Political Theory, Political Economy, Contextual Political Analysis, Comparative Politics, International Relations, Law and Politics, Political Behavior, Political Institutions, and Political Methodology. The project as a whole is under the General Editorship of Robert E. Goodin, with each volume being edited by a distinguished international group of specialists in their respective fields. The books set out not just to report on the discipline, but to shape it. The series will be an indispensable point of reference for anyone working in political science and adjacent disciplines. Over its long lifetime, "political economy" has had many different meanings: the science of managing the resources of a nation so as to provide wealth to its inhabitants for Adam Smith; the study of how the ownership of the means of production influenced historical processes for Marx; the study of the inter-relationship between economics and politics for some twentieth-century commentators; and for others, a methodology emphasizing individual rationality (the economic or "public choice" approach) or institutional adaptation (the sociological version). This Handbook views political economy as a grand (if imperfect) synthesis of these various strands, treating political economy as the methodology of economics applied to the analysis of political behavior and institutions. This Handbook surveys the field of political economy, with 58 chapters ranging from micro to macro, national to international, institutional to behavioral, methodological to substantive. Chapters on social choice, constitutional theory, and public economics are set alongside ones on voters, parties and pressure groups, macroeconomics and politics, capitalism and democracy, and international political economy and international conflict.
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The Promise of the Third Way: Globalization and Social Justice
Otto Newman , and
Richard de Zoysa
Manufacturer: Palgrave Macmillan
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ASIN: 0333792858 |
Book Description
Aiming to transcend the conflict between Left and Right, the Third Way was welcomed by leading figures on the world stage. Its program of modernization, flexibility, and community regeneration indicated a way forward for many societies. Within a firm market emphasis, equality of opportunity and social inclusion were given a prominent place. However, its leaders' lack of direction and disinclination to face hard decisions have left its promise unfulfilled. This book puts forward a rigorous rethinking towards making the Third Way an effective instrument of progress for Britain as well as abroad.
Book Description
This book represents a considerable revision and expansion of Public Choice II (1989). As in the previous editions, all of the major topics of public choice are covered. These include: why the state exists, voting rules, federalism, the theory of clubs, two-party and multiparty electoral systems, rent seeking, bureaucracy, interest groups, dictatorship, the size of government, voter participation, and political business cycles. Normative issues in public choice are also examined. The book is suitable for upper level courses in economics dealing with politics, and political science courses emphasizing rational actor models.
Download Description
This book represents a considerable revision and expansion of Public Choice II (1989). As in the previous editions, all of the major topics of public choice are covered. These include: why the state exists, voting rules, federalism, the theory of clubs, two-party and multiparty electoral systems, rent seeking, bureaucracy, interest groups, dictatorship, the size of government, voter participation, and political business cycles. Normative issues in public choice are also examined. The book is suitable for upper level courses in economics dealing with politics, and political science courses emphasizing rational actor models.
Customer Reviews:
Good Review Text on Rat-Choice Politics and Public Choice.......2003-05-22
This is a great book! As a political-science graduate student I've been exposed to a great deal of game-theory and rat-choice in my seminar classes, but, unfortunately, it has come in the form of numerous papers, piles of books, and several classes that did not build off of one another. I was left with the feeling that it was a very, very important subject, but it was presented in a manner that left me, as a student, with an incomplete picture of the topic and the breadth of work that has gone on in this field.
Mueller's achievements in this volume have been three:
1. Coherent presentation of the theory of public choice / rational politics.
2. Discussion of the most important empirical work that has gone on in this field in a unified fashion that leads one naturally into further inquiry in this area.
3. Logically organizes and presents the material in a way that reinforces concepts, logic, and thinking in the book.
These three things make this book a great review or introductory text to the field of public choice / rational politics that should be on the "must have" list of every serious student of politics and economics. Moreover, not being terribly skilled at mathematics myself, the material is presented both through intuitive written discussions, fairly simplistic "example" equations that are pretty easy to follow if you've had a "principles" microecon course with calculus, and, which I greatly appreciate, a fair amount of graphs. Moreover, the bibliography that the book draws on is very, very extensive...meaning that it has the additional utility of being a handy jumping off point if you're doing research in this area.
My only complaint, and this is a minor one, is that I would like a bit more math in the book either at the end of each chapter or in an appendix that works out, step-by-step, some of the additional concepts he runs over that aren't dealt with mathematically in the main text of the chapters themselves.
This, at least in my opinion, is an excellent book for the graduate student interested in learning about public choice / rational politics.
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