Book Description
The Equity Risk Premium-the difference between the rate of return on common stock and the return on government securities-has been widely recognized as the key to forecasting future returns on the stock market. Though relatively simple in theory, understanding and making practical use of the equity risk premium concept has been dauntingly complex-until now.
In The Equity Risk Premium, financial advisor, author, and scholar Bradford Cornell makes accessible for the first time an authoritative explanation of the equity risk premium and how it works in the real world. Step-by-step, his lucid, nontechnical presentation leads the reader to a new and more enlightened basis for making asset allocation choices.
Cornell begins his analysis by looking at the equity risk premium in the light of stock market history. He examines the use of historical data in estimating future stock market performance, including the historical relationship between stock returns and risk premium, the impact of survival bias, and the effect of long-horizon stock and bond returns. Using the stock market boom of the 1990s as a case study, Cornell demonstrates what equity risk premium analysis can tell us about whether stock prices are high or low, whether the stock market itself may have changed, and whether indeed a new economic paradigm of higher earnings and dividend growth is now in place.
Cornell analyzes forward-looking estimates of the equity risk premium through the lens of various competing approaches and assesses the relative merits of each. Among those scrutinized are the Discounted Cash Flow model, the Kaplan-Rubeck study, the Welch survey, and the Fama-French Aggregate IRR analysis. His insights on risk aversion theory, on the types of risk that have been rewarded over time, and on changing investor demographics all supply the sophisticated investor with important pieces of the risk premium puzzle.
In his invaluable summing up of the equity risk premium and the long-run outlook for common stocks, Cornell weighs the evidence and assays the impact of a lower equity risk premium in the future-and its profound implications for investments, corporate decision making, and retirement planning.
The product of years of serious analysis and hard-won insights, The Equity Risk Premium is essential reading for institutional investors, money managers, corporate financial officers, and all others who require a higher level of market analysis.
"The Equity Risk Premium plays a critical role in legal and regulatory matters related to corporate finance. Along with the cost of debt, it is the most important determinant of a company's cost of capital. As such, it is an integral part of the decision-making process in corporate finance. For instance, whether or not a major acquisition makes sense can depend on the assumed value of the equity risk premium. In addition, the equity risk premium is an issue that regulatory bodies consider when they set fair rates of return for regulated companies. Cornell's book is an important contribution because it includes both an historical analysis of the equity risk premium and provides tools for forecasting reasonable levels of the risk premium in the years ahead."-Theodore N. Miller, Partner, Sidley & Austin.
"Estimating how well stocks will do in the future from how well they have done in the past is like driving a car while looking in the rearview mirror. Brad Cornell provides us with an important forward-looking view in this easily understood guide to the equity risk premium and confounds the popular view that stocks will do well in the future because they have done well in the past."-Michael Brennan, Past President of the American Finance Association and Professor of Finance at the University of California at Los Angeles.
Customer Reviews:
Not rigorous or entertaining.......2007-03-02
This book was quite a disappointment and is very overpriced. If you have an academic background you will find it lacking in rigor. If you do not you may be fooled into the "illusion of understanding" but I would see that as a bad thing. Many people (myself included) read books on quantum physics or relativity for the layman just for enjoyment, and rationally seek the "illusion of understanding." This book does not rate highly in the "fun" scale. It is rather dry, and the subject matter itself is not as amusing as Schrodinger's cat or time travel. So I can only assume that non-academic readers really want to figure out how things really are, to trade their portfolios, and this book cannot satisfy that desire. This for two reasons: 1) researchers have not really solved the puzzles associated with the equity risk premium, 2) the non-technical reader cannot understand the subtleties of the subject matter. Given this, the "illusion of understanding" becomes a dangerous thing.
Save your $65 and buy some stocks for the long-run.
The Equity Risk Premium.......2002-02-09
The author, Professor Bradford Cornell, gives an analytical, yet very readable, explanation and forecast of the decline of the stock market during the past couple of years. In this regard Professor Cornell makes a similar conclusion about the value of equtiies and slightly earlier than did Robert J. Shiller in his book, Irrational Exuberance. It is unfortunate that Professor Cornell and his book did not get the same attention that was accorded to Professor Shiller at the start of the stock market decline.
The thesis of the book is that the equity risk premium for stocks, which is the compensation given to equity investors for holding shares of risky common stocks, was below, perhaps much below, what was historically normal. This implied that investors came to view common stocks as being a much less risky investment than stocks had been in the past. Indeed, a quite common view of many investors before the recent fall in the stock market was the view that common stock were an appropriate vehicle for "savings" rather than just for "investment." The implication of this perception by some investors is that equities in general were likely to continue to rise in price over time and thus represented a "safe" or at least low risk vehicle for discretionary income that was not spent.
However, periods of relative low perceived risk usually do not last and are followed by periods of relatively higher perceived risk. The current period we are now in appears to be one in which the uncertainties regarding the stock market have increased and thus investors are now demanding greater compensation, that is, a higher risk premium, for bearing those uncertainties.
The reason the book does not get five stars is that the book misspecifies the constant dividend growth model equation that forms the basis for the author's explanation of the adjustment in the equity risk premium. However, this oversight should not prevent the reader from getting a great explanation of how the prices of common stocks adjust to risks from this fine book.
Still don't understand the ERP puzzle.......2000-11-01
The real dillema regarding ERP is that the real ex-post ERP is irrationally different from the the ex-ante ERP required for CAPM valuations. Prof. Cornell does explore this issue well for a general audience. However, this book does not diminish my skepticism of CAPM equilibrium valuations and ex-ante ERP estimators.
Readable, Reasonalble, Rational.......2000-10-10
This book, with its many references, is a great guide to the academic literature on stock valuation. It was easy to read, very logical, and educational.
Detailed research, not targeted to a typical investor.......2000-08-06
The book seems to be targeted towards University researcher types more than people interested in learning about investing. If you are looking for a book that helps to explain how to value individual stocks for investment, skip this book.
There is a lot of detailed analysis of past history or stock market performance and other fundamentals. There is a comparison of dividend trends and lots of other stuff. Almost all of the book treats the entire market as a whole rather than analyzing individual stocks. I believe the conclusion of the book is that the stock market as a whole is over priced based on the extensive research performed by the author.
Average customer rating:
- A very promising and suspenseful debut thriller
- Good writer, not-so-good book
- A MUST READ THRILLER!!!!
- More like an Action Movie than a Crime Novel
- "support for S & M/torture--Bush would love it"
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Run the Risk
Scott Frost
Manufacturer: Berkley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
 Contemporary
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Women Sleuths
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Never Fear
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Officer Down
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The King of Lies
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Hide Your Eyes
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Echo Park (Harry Bosch)
ASIN: 0425208427 |
Book Description
When a serial bomber kidnaps a young girl and plans to unleash his incendiary powers on live TV, he ignites white-hot rage--and a mother's revenge.
Download Description
"A detective faces a horrifying choice between love and duty in this hair-raising debut. Reminiscent of the best in today's suspense-from Jeffery Deaver's roller-coaster twists to James Patterson's cinematic pacing-Run the Risk introduces a blazing new talent in Scott Frost. As one of the writers behind Twin Peaks, he knows something about creating eerie and atmospheric tension. In this brilliant novel, he gives us a heroine who faces a challenge no one can ever be completely prepared for and a story as urgently and viscerally told as any in recent memory. Los Angeles homicide detective Alex Delillo works a case that chills her from the start: one with too much ambiguity and far too many surprises. None of the evidence-and yet all of it-seems relevant. A small-time shopkeeper is shot to death. Then a rare, untraceable explosive ignites in a bungalow, hurling the front door across the yard. Finally, a teenaged girl goes missing, her car window smashed, her keys still in the ignition. Even before they tell her, Detective Delillo knows that this girl is her daughter. Delillo tracks her quarry on a trail of escalating terror toward a fiery showdown that will test her wisdom, her will, and her every skill."
Customer Reviews:
A very promising and suspenseful debut thriller.......2007-06-06
A gripping, fantastic debut from the former X-Files and Twin Peaks script writer. This book is everything a suspense novel ought to be. The characters are wonderful, vivid, and realistic and the mystery is taut and suspenseful and leaves the reader with some serious moral questions at its conclusion. I give this one high, high praise and look forward to reading the author's next novel.
Good writer, not-so-good book.......2007-01-26
This book is certainly exciting, and certainly well-written.
Most of the characters are believable and even engaging.
The pacing is (by and large) superb.
But it's got some terrible, terrible flaws.
First, and worst, it's about a serial killer.
This is the hoariest of cliches, on a par with an Evil Twin or "It was all only a dream!!!!"
Clearly, a licensing board should be set up to charge authors a penalty-fee every time they use this immensely tired plot device.
Second--related to the first--the plot (though rapid) is just one damn thing after another. It's as though the author hadn't really thought things out to the end before writing. There is an abrupt and pointless shift from Chasing a Terrorist (a cliche, but not half as bad) to Chasing a Serial Killer (yawn).
Third--related to the first two--there are lots of loose ends. The romance sputters and stalls. The mother-daughter conflict sputters and stalls. The police turf-conflict (another cliche) sputters and stalls. The serial killer never really develops or (and this is worse) becomes scary.
All of this is too bad, because Frost is a good writer.
His second book, Never Fear, is miles better.
A MUST READ THRILLER!!!!.......2006-11-25
PLEASE scroll up this page and purchase this book before you do ANYTHING else!! I am a voracious reader - primarily thrillers and psychological suspense - and this first book from Scott Frost is one of the BEST books I've EVER had the pleasure to read!!
While I thrilled to the pacing, style, and content of the book, I also enjoyed the author's observations through the eyes of the book's heroine. Alex is a female cop - the Chief of Homicide - in a modern (still male-driven) Police force in So. California - Pasadina. She is also a mother of a teenager (and I'll leave it to you who also have been parents of teenagers to imagine WHICH job gives her the most problems). From the opening series of events, to the closing phrase, you, the reader, are asked to join in the team's efforts to "Run the Risk"!!! AND, YOU DO, willingly.
Run the Risk, as I take it from the book, is the term used by fire investigators when they have done all that they can in a situation, given the circumstances, their FULL professional expertise and experience, and are left with the time-sensitive need to make a decision: cut A wire; cut THE wire; cut the WIRES; cut the RED wire; cut the BLUE wire; but, still, DO SOMETHING or the bomb will go off!!
I found this parable to ring true for most of all that we do in the world today, given the speed of events we are faced with, and the consequences of our decisions. AND, the need we have to ACTUALLY LIVE with the results of that decision!!
I LOVED THIS BOOK!! As an "expert" in "serial killers", I found this one a new and truly horrifying one - even worse than Hannible Lecter!!!
I am running to obtain the next in this series. THANK YOU SCOTT FROST!!
More like an Action Movie than a Crime Novel.......2006-08-07
This novel was nominated for the Edgar Award for Best First Mystery/Crime novel of 2005, so I thought I would give it a shot. I was somewhat disappointed with it.
Los Angeles homicide detective Alex Delillo's daughter is kidnapped by a serial killer who likes to murder people with explosive devices. The novel basically deals with Delillo's race against time to save her daughter and catch the mad killer.
This book is fast-paced and decently written, but at the expense of character development. In many ways, this book resembles a non-stop action movie. The characters literally run from one implausable action scene (often involving a ticking bomb and an explosion) to another. The book never slows down and allows us to get to know these people. Many of the characters therefore end up rather sketchy and bland.
I also found the daughter character in this novel to be highly annoying, which is unfortunate since we are supposed to fear for her life. There are also many loose ends in RUN THE RISK that are not wrapped up in the ending.
Overall, I give this book a very mild recommendation. I would only recommend this novel to people looking for a good action read.
"support for S & M/torture--Bush would love it".......2005-11-30
I like mysteries, etc. even those with some violence, but I found this highly disturbing: considering the issues of the day, it
exploits torture, sexualizes it (oh so subtley) and leaves for the
un-doubtedly unending sequels the "punishment" of the villain. I
cannot help but feel total DISGUST for the writer who has some
real skill and accomplishments (does NOT need to do this). He does NOT help society look at the pros and cons of torture (?46%
of us think "some" torture is OK!!!????) but encourages us to get
some kind of vicarious feeling from the long drawn-out descriptions--feels really "sicko" to me. As a volunteer in a library who does not believe in "censorship," this is the one
exception I have run across. (We had choices of audio-tapes & I
simply could not recommend this one). With ratings of "5" I fear
for our future (along with everything else currently going on).
Average customer rating:
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The Risks We Run: Mining, Communities and Political Risk Insurance
Roger Moody
Manufacturer: International Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
Company Profiles
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General
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ASIN: 9057270064 |
Book Description
This critique of political risk insurance (PRI), the type of insurance used by large-scale mining projects, includes six case studies that show how PRI has severe negative social and environmental impacts on mining communities. Included are descriptions of such landmark cases as the Omai gold mine in Guyana, which was insured through PRI by the World Bank and the Canadian government and whose waste facilities completely collapsed, causing the country's worst environmental disaster in recorded history. Conclusions are drawn about the failure of insuring agencies such as the World Bank to anticipate the consequences of major mining projects and consider the effects of large-scale mining on sustainable development.
Average customer rating:
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IF IT RUNS IN THE FAMILY: BREAST CANCER (If It Runs in Your Family)
Chandler Scott Mcmillin
Manufacturer: Bantam
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
Breast Cancer
| Cancer
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General
| Cancer
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General
| Health, Mind & Body
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Internal Medicine
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| Cardiology
| Critical Care
| Endocrinology & Metabolism
| Gastroenterology
| General
| Hematology
| Hepatology
| Infectious Disease
| Nephrology
| Neurology
| Oncology
| Pulmonary
| Rheumatology
| Urology
ASIN: 0553349538
Release Date: 1991-03-01 |
Average customer rating:
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IF IT RUNS IN THE FAMILY: HEART DISEASE (If It Runs in Your Family)
Charles Kleiman
Manufacturer: Bantam
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
Cardiology
| Internal Medicine
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General
| Parenting & Families
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Cardiology
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ASIN: 0553349546
Release Date: 1991-03-01 |
Average customer rating:
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IF IT RUNS IN YOUR FAMILY: ARTHRITIS (If It Runs in Your Family)
Mary Dan Eades
Manufacturer: Bantam
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
Internal Medicine
| Medicine
| Subjects
| Books
| Cardiology
| Critical Care
| Endocrinology & Metabolism
| Gastroenterology
| General
| Hematology
| Hepatology
| Infectious Disease
| Nephrology
| Neurology
| Oncology
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| Urology
General
| Health, Mind & Body
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ASIN: 0553354787
Release Date: 1992-01-01 |
Average customer rating:
- Identify your risk, and develop a plan for prevention.
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IF IT RUNS IN YOUR FAMILY: OVARIAN AND U (If It Runs in Your Family)
Sherilynn J. Hummel
Manufacturer: Bantam
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
General
| Oncology
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Oncology
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General
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General
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ASIN: 0553354256
Release Date: 1992-01-01 |
Customer Reviews:
Identify your risk, and develop a plan for prevention........1997-08-08
If your great grandma died of "stomach cancer", the real cause may have been advanced ovarian cancer. Hummel and Lindquist lead you through the complex world of ovarian and uterine cancer, in a very understandable way. Use their book to develop a family tree to trace genetic predispositions to these silent killers, and learn about their possible links to a family history of breast, uterine, and ovarian cancer. Then discuss your findings with your doctor to develop an early detection plan to reduce your risk. Although hard to find for purchase, place your order, then go to your local library to locate a copy to get started early on your defensive planning. Buy this book to refer to in future years, and to lend to siblings, aunts, and your own children to help them reduce their risk. If someone you love has battled these cancers, this book is a must read to calm your own fears, and arm you to stop a similar war in your own body. A long term plan for preventing and catching these cancers early is your best defense, and Hummel and Lindquist offer a no nonsense approach to this strategy
Book Description
Some men go to war for the glory. Some men go to war to escape. For Scott Remington, war is entirely different. It is a belief. It is a calling. It is a destiny. Leaving everything behind-his fiancée, his future, his life-he embarks on a mission of faith into a battle he can barely understand. This is his story. This is his war. This is only the beginning.
Customer Reviews:
Epic: Dawn of Destiny - My Official Review.......2007-09-11
Epic: Dawn of Destiny is the story of Scott Remington, a young man just out of the military academy. It follows him through his first battle, where his actions earn him a reputation among his commanding officers (If you want to know what kind of reputation, read the book), through his re-assignment to another unit, and ends with the third major battle of his military career. Along the way he makes and loses friends, and also makes a few enemies.
After reading this book, I was prepared to give it an average review at best. There were several items that I thought could have been better in the story; these are outlined below. However, after taking an extra day to think about it, I decided I really couldn't give it anything less than five stars. This is a very, very entertaining story and the author does a good job of pulling you in and keeping the story rolling.
There were a few items that I thought could use some improvement:
- Scott Remington performs several difficult missions that no one else is able to pull off over the course of this book. However, the author makes these missions seem almost too easy for Remington. If they are so difficult, how can he complete them with the reletive ease that we see in the story?
- Some extra time could have been devoted to developing the other characters a little bit better. While the the author does a decent job on his character development, none of the characters other than Remington are that memorable.
- Finally, the subplot with Remington and Nicole almost seems like an afterthought to the story, added after the rest of the plot has been completed, wherever room can be found to add it. The resulting conversations are also fairly unrealistic. The two of them would have had a much harder time with the story developments than is actually shown.
In closing, while I do think that the above points could be improved on, they do not stop this book from being a highly entertaining, fast-paced story. Any book that keeps me reading until 4 in the morning is well-deserving of the five star rating that I give it. While science-fiction is defintely not my preferred reading, I would highly recommend this book to anyone looking for a good war story. Try it, you will not be disappointed.
Well-written exciting military sci-fi .......2007-09-09
I bought this book based on references from other reviews of sci-fi books here on Amazon.com. I am very glad I ordered this book as it helped redeem my enthusiasm for sci-fi after reading several over-rated sci-fi books.
Although, this is the first book by Lee Stephen it has a level of maturity rarely seen in sci-fi. The military action is top-notch exciting stuff and the dialog between characters reads as genuine conversation.
Glad I read it!.......2007-07-12
Well, like many others I used the rating of others who had read this book before me as a ruler before I put down my own money for the book. So, overall I've very glad that I read it.
GOOD POINTS:
- Good story line. While you don't have all of the questions answered in the beginning of the book...the way the story unfolds have enought information to move you throught the book.
- Interesting characters. Overall they people in the book are easy to understand and follow.
- Humorous writing. This guy reminds me of some other writers in the way he tell his story. The humor and descriptions are among the best I've read in a long time.
BAD POINTS:
- As of July 2007, there's no follow-up book available. As it was in paperback and the title says BOOK 1, I would have thought that the second book was out and available...nope. According to the author's web site, it's done and waiting for release later this year.
- The back-story... OK, I've been a SCIFI reader for more years that I care to count. Some has been REALLY HOT, some has been so bad that I took pleasure in putting the pages through the shredder I use for some paper garbage! I know that you have to suspend your belief of some things to get into the story. Well, in the case of this story, you're dropped into what really is the middle of the story and I found myself wondering about the other people / conditions that wer enot being talked about. Heck, if you read the back cover you have a snipet of a story that happens on the streets of Chicago...once that story ends (great part of the book BTW) you never heard anything about the city or ramifications of the battle, nothing. GEEZ!
Overall I'm very glad I bought / read it and do plan on buying the follow-up book.
Simply stunning.......2007-05-20
This book captures the reader's attention and forces you to forget about eating, forget about sleeping... it entices you to read cover to cover and then read again - to pick up on the many small details you might have misssed the first time.
I cannot wait for the next in the series. I'm not a Sci-Fi reader usually...but I am now!
Awesome!!!.......2007-05-10
This book really blew me away. I was recommended the novel by a friend of the author and was hesitant to read it. I was very wrong.
Stephen does an amazing job creating a realistic future society while at the same time focusing strongly on character development. Battle sequences remind me a bit of Clancy. His ability to make the reader turn the page is in line with Dan Brown novels, and at the same time he has an amazing underlying story about an ordinary man pursuing a cause bigger than himself.
Stephen is definitely an up and coming author. I can't wait to read his next novel.
Average customer rating:
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Raven of Destiny
Manufacturer: Methuen Publishing Ltd
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
Science Fiction & Fantasy | Subjects | Books | Authors, A-Z | Books on CD | Books on Cassette | Fantasy | Gaming | Large Print | Media | Science Fiction | Writing
ASIN: 0413546004 |
Product Description
**** ($3.99 USA POSTAGE FOR ALL 6 BOOKS, WHICH WILL BE MAILED AT THE MEDIA - BOOK RATE WHICH IS SLOW SURFACE MAIL, 7 - 21 DAYS DELIVERY TIME). **** PLEASE NOTE : 3 BOOKS HAVE VERY HEAVY WEAR AND ARE IN POOR SHAPE. 5 BOOKS TAPPED UPPED AT SPINE AREA. ONE BOOK IS AN EX-LIBRARY BOOK.
Average customer rating:
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Raven of Destiny
Peter Tremayne
Manufacturer: New Amer Library
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Mass Market Paperback
ASIN: B000GRIT1O |
Books:
- The Grave Maurice
- The Grifters
- The Holy Thief: The Nineteenth Chronicle of Brother Cadfael
- The Jesus Creed: Loving God, Loving Others
- The Mask of Apollo: A Novel
- The MindBody Workbook
- The Mysteries of Harris Burdick (Portfolio Edition)
- The Novice's Tale (Sister Frevisse Medieval Mysteries)
- The Quiche of Death (Agatha Raisin Mysteries)
- The Right Attitude to Rain: The Sunday Philosophy Club (Random House Large Print (Hardcover))
Books Index
Books Home
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- Flying High in Iowa: Growing Up During the Depression, Pilot in Army Air Force, Prisoner of War, Far
Corporate Valuation: Tools for Effective Appraisal and Decision-Making
The Equity Risk Premium: Essays and Explorations
Capital Ideas Evolving
Valuing Wall Street : Protecting Wealth in Turbulent Markets
The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market's Perfect Storm
