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Semi-Markov Risk Models for Finance, Insurance and Reliability
Jacques Janssen , and
Raimondo Manca
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ASIN: 0387707298 |
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This book presents applications of semi-Markov processes in finance, insurance and reliability, using real-life problems as examples. After a presentation of the main probabilistic tools necessary for understanding of the book, the authors show how to apply semi-Markov processes in finance, starting from the axiomatic definition and continuing eventually to the most advanced financial tools, particularly in insurance and in risk-and-ruin theories. Also considered are reliability problems that interact with credit risk theory in finance. The unique approach of this book is to solve finance and insurance problems with semi-Markov models in a complete way and furthermore present real-life applications of semi-Markov processes.
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Stochastic Models in Reliability and Maintenance
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 3540431330 |
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This book contains 12 contributions on stochastic models in reliability and maintenance. Written by the leading researchers on each topic, each contribution surveys the current status on stochastic models emphasizing mathematical formulation and optimization applications. Each contribution is self-contained and has a thorough bibliography. The topics include renewal processes, semi-Markov processes, Markovian deterioration models, maintenance and replacement models, software reliability models and Monte-Carlo simulation. This book provides researchers, reliability engineers and graduate students with the current status of the field and future developments of the subject.
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Advances in Stochastic Models for Reliability, Quality and Safety (Statistics for Industry and Technology)
Manufacturer: Birkhauser
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ASIN: 0817640495 |
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Dependability for Systems with a Partitioned State Space: Markov and Semi-Markov Theory and Computational Implementation (Lecture Notes in Statistics)
Attila Csenki
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0387943331 |
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This work is concerned with the dependability characteristics of reliability models which have a partitioned state space. In applications these partitions will correspond to various degrees of system performance. Both discrete and continuous time systems are considered as well as Markov and semi-Markov systems. With these models one may develop many dependability characteristics including: the number of working periods during an interval, the number of repair periods until system breakdown, and the total time spent in the set of working states. The author shows how the theory may be applied using numerous examples and with three computing packages: MATLAB, MAPLE, and the NAG Fortran 77 subroutine library. As a result, researchers and practioners concerned with analyzing and modelling the performance of systems, and engineers working on systems dependability will find much of interest here.
Book Description
Engineering Uncertainty and Risk Analysis offers an integrated coverage of the subjects of probability, statistics, Monte Carlo simulation,descriptive and inferential statistics, design of experiments, systems reliability, fitting random data to models, analysis of variance(ANOVA), stochastic processes, and stochastic differential equations. While these subjects are normally covered in different treatises or college courses, the author for the first time presents an introduction to the broad field of engineering uncertainty analysis in one comprehensive, friendly, coverage. The focus is on Engineering applications, rather than theoretical or mathematical considerations. Each concept is illustrated with several examples (151 solved examples) of relevance in engineering applications (no cards, colored balls, or dice). Engineering Uncertainty and Risk Analysis illustrates practical applications with the use of modern computer algebra software, such as Maple (50 short computer programs). However, no prior knowledge of Maple is needed. The author gradually introduces the reader to the use of Maple in stochastic and statistical analysis and modeling, starting from the very basic operations through advanced operations.
Engineering Uncertainty and Risk Analysis presents random differential equations as a natural extension to their deterministic counterpart, rather than a special theoretical subject for statisticians or advanced graduate work. The author strives to emulate the courses of differential equations in most college textbooks. This way the reader may associate random differential equations naturally with the deterministic course s/he had. Many examples illustrate the concepts. In addition, new powerful analytical methods to solve non-linear equations are presented for the first time at this level.
Customer Reviews:
'Never tell me the odds' - Solo.......2002-01-03
Excellent! Even if you fear probability and statistics, you can learn so much from this book. Dr. Serrano provides a crawl, walk, run approach to probability, statistics, and uncertainty. Any academic discipline could gain from this book, but the examples used tend toward engineering and its applications. Not only will the reader gain a firm foundation on the subject matter, the latter chapters take you to the upper level of stats, probability, and modeling of the unknown. As a bonus, Dr. Serrano inserts helpful hints and example programs to use in the very powerful C based Maple mathmatics software.
"Never tell me the odds!" - Solo.......2001-12-28
Excellent! I knew nothing of statistics or probability until this book. It takes you through a crawl, walk, run of these needlessly feared subjects. The practical applications are uncanny. Although focused on engineering applications, any academic discipline would gain from this book. Serrano also teaches you the basic ins and outs of the powerful C based Maple mathmatics software.
Book Description
A unique introduction to the innovative methodology of statistical flowgraphs
This book offers a practical, application-based approach to flowgraph models for time-to-event data. It clearly shows how this innovative new methodology can be used to analyze data from semi-Markov processes without prior knowledge of stochastic processes--opening the door to interesting applications in survival analysis and reliability as well as stochastic processes.
Unlike other books on multistate time-to-event data, this work emphasizes reliability and not just biostatistics, illustrating each method with medical and engineering examples. It demonstrates how flowgraphs bring together applied probability techniques and combine them with data analysis and statistical methods to answer questions of practical interest. Bayesian methods of data analysis are emphasized. Coverage includes:
* Clear instructions on how to model multistate time-to-event data using flowgraph models
* An emphasis on computation, real data, and Bayesian methods for problem solving
* Real-world examples for analyzing data from stochastic processes
* The use of flowgraph models to analyze complex stochastic networks
* Exercise sets to reinforce the practical approach of this volume
Flowgraph Models for Multistate Time-to-Event Data is an invaluable resource/reference for researchers in biostatistics/survival analysis, systems engineering, and in fields that use stochastic processes, including anthropology, biology, psychology, computer science, and engineering.
Download Description
A unique introduction to the innovative methodology of statistical flowgraphs This book offers a practical, application-based approach to flowgraph models for time-to-event data. It clearly shows how this innovative new methodology can be used to analyze data from semi-Markov processes without prior knowledge of stochastic processes--opening the door to interesting applications in survival analysis and reliability as well as stochastic processes. Unlike other books on multistate time-to-event data, this work emphasizes reliability and not just biostatistics, illustrating each method with medical and engineering examples. It demonstrates how flowgraphs bring together applied probability techniques and combine them with data analysis and statistical methods to answer questions of practical interest. Bayesian methods of data analysis are emphasized. Coverage includes: * Clear instructions on how to model multistate time-to-event data using flowgraph models * An emphasis on computation, real data, and Bayesian methods for problem solving * Real-world examples for analyzing data from stochastic processes * The use of flowgraph models to analyze complex stochastic networks * Exercise sets to reinforce the practical approach of this volume Flowgraph Models for Multistate Time-to-Event Data is an invaluable resource/reference for researchers in biostatistics/survival analysis, systems engineering, and in fields that use stochastic processes, including anthropology, biology, psychology, computer science, and engineering.
Product Description
This is a AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING report procured by the Pentagon and made available for public release. It has been reproduced in the best form available to the Pentagon. It is not spiral-bound, but rather assembled with Velobinding in a soft, white linen cover. The Storming Media report number is A716243. The abstract provided by the Pentagon follows: Prescriptive models used to allocate resources for network improvement traditionally have used reliability or flow as Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs). Such metrics do not give value to efforts which make a component more difficult to exploit. This study developed an entirely new MOE for stochastic network improvement, flow damage utility, which uses a two person, zero-sum, noncooperative game to optimize a probabilistic network for an estimate of expected flow minus performance degradation after a worst case component loss. A multiple criteria optimization problem that uses flow damage utility and an analogous, previously developed metric for the reliability problem is used to capture the strategic competition between the network defender and attacker and shows promise of finding 'value free' improvement defensive strategies in the context of Steuer's reverse filtering as applied to the generated efficient frontier. Irrespective of unit costs of reliability vs. bandwidth improvement, a 'value free' solution may be imputed from these game theoretic models. Examples of analysis on four different networks are presented.
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Mathematical Models for Structural Reliability Analysis (Crc Mathematical Modelling Series)
Fabio Casciati , and
Brian Roberts
Manufacturer: CRC
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ASIN: 084939631X |
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Mathematical Models for Structural Reliability Analysis offers mathematical models for describing load and material properties in solving structural engineering problems. Examples are provided, demonstrating how the models are implemented, and the limitations of the models are clearly stated. Analytical solutions are also discussed, and methods are clearly distinguished from models. The authors explain both theoretical models and practical applications in a clear, concise, and readable fashion.
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Recent Advances in Reliability Theory: Methodology, Practice and Inference (Statistics for Industry and Technology)
Manufacturer: Birkhäuser Boston
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ASIN: 0817641351 |
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This book presents thirty-one extensive and carefully edited chapters providing an up-to-date survey of new models and methods for reliability analysis and applications in science, engineering, and technology. The chapters contain broad coverage of the latest developments and innovative techniques in a wide range of theoretical and numerical issues in the field of statistical and probabilistic methods in reliability.
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In The Good Soldier Svejk, celebrated Czech writer and anarchist Jaroslav Hasek combined dazzling wordplay and piercing satire in a hilariously subversive depiction of the futility of war.
Good-natured and garrulous, Svejk becomes the Austrian army's most loyal Czech soldier when he is called up on the outbreak of World War I—although his bumbling attempts to get to the front serve only to prevent him from reaching it. Playing cards and getting drunk, he uses all his cunning and genial subterfuge to deal with the police, clergy, and officers who chivy him toward battle. Cecil Parrott's vibrant translation conveys the brilliant irreverence of this classic about a hapless Everyman caught in a vast bureaucratic machine.
“Brilliant . . . Perhaps the funniest novel ever written.”
—George Monbiot
Customer Reviews:
the good soldier svejk.......2007-05-23
This is an hilarious novel that was a forerunner to catch 22. We have the Good Soldier Svejk for WWI, Catch 22 for WWII, and to a lesser extent Forrest Gump for Viatnam.
Recommend to those wanting a good chuckle
Picaresque antiwar classic .......2006-11-04
This is a beautiful and inexpensive edition, with the original cartoonish illustrations. The translation is lively and the book can be hilarious, but I bogged down about halfway through--it seems to go on and on, as picaresque novels do, but a bit too much in the same vein for my taste. It was written for serialization, so it's probably not meant to be read at one gulp, and likely I'll pick it up at some point later.
Probably My Favorite Book.......2001-01-12
I first read Hasek's masterpiece almost 30 years ago in a shorter and more Bowdlerized translation. The Cecil Parrot edition is, needless to say, far preferable (it even contains a wonderful introduction including a discussion of Czech profanity as compared to that in English) and I've read it again and again since it came out in 1974. Shelby Foote said somewhere that every year he reads Proust as a sort of literary vacation. About ever 2 or 3 years I reread Svejk to cleanse my literary palate and it's always as fresh and as enjoyable as it was the first time. The dialogue, the characters and the situations in Svejk are, stated simply, the funniest I've ever read. Many other books have many merits in this regard, but none has approached Hasek in the sustained hilarity over 500 pages or more. The secret policeman, Bretschneider, Chaplain Katz, Sergeant Major Vanek, Cadet Biegler, Balloun and Lt. Dub are all memorable characters in their own right, but when they interact the result surpasses anything I have ever read for comedy. The episode involving a character with writer's block during his drafting of a prayer to be recited while administering Mr. Kokoska's pharmaceutical powders for cow flatulence is a classic rivalling Aristophanes or Rabelais. [I realize that sentence is confusingly prolix, so please read the book; it will be worth your while.] The term "laugh out loud" is overused and abused these days, but The Good Soldier Svejk will have you disturbing family and friends with repeated guffawing any time you are reading it nearby. I can't give a text any higher recommendation.
One of the Two Best Novels of World War I.......1999-11-28
Both of the best books on the First World War were written by the losing side...ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT and THE GOOD SOLDIER SCHWEIK tell the same story, but from different viewpoints. Schweik is a wise fool whose main goal is to avoid the greater foolishness around him. Hasek was a modern day Cervantes and this modern day Don Quixote interacts with a gallery of hilarious characters and their stories. I only regret that Hasek died before the book could be finished. Josef Lada's illustrations are a wonderful addition to the book, and it's a pleasure getting Cecil Parrott's translation in hardcover. Note: The earlier translations are not the complete book.
Spun Our Serial Runs On and On.......1999-08-31
OK, I'll admit up front that I only made it through 450 of this 800 page monster. As I was reading this, I saw the pile of unread books mounting alarmingly, and as I had more or less gotten the gist of it, I tucked the ribbon twixt the pages and set it aside. These (never-ending) stories of the Czech WW I soldier Svejk are considered a modern "must read." as they depict the trials and travails of a well-intentioned soldier muddling through the army beauracacy. The book functions as a satire of the war, the leaders, and the army. The problem is, these stories were written as serials, and as such, tend to go on and on and on.... so that Hasek could milk more money from them. In fact, they are unfinished, as the author died before he could dictate the end! So, I suggest dipping in to it, but not soaking too long as the antics don't vary much as the book moves along. Those with an particular interest in Czech culture or World War I might have greater reason to finish it than the general reader.
Customer Reviews:
A Classic and a very funny book.......2006-07-06
This is one of the classics and in fact was quoted in the The Times of London as one of the 100 books of the last century. It is funny and it is wise and shows with absolute clarity the absurdity of war, dictatorship or regimentation of any kind.
It is very well translated into English by a former British ambassador to Czechoslovakia.
Humor at its best in a down-to-Earth Balkan style.......2006-02-24
This book is a must for any person who wants to understand or identify with Central and Eastern Europe. Schweik, is brilliant, ironic in his straightforwardness, and without pretense. He is stumbling on adventures in his attempt to get by through life, and is always prepared to find a safer, easier way of handling the situation. The fact that some "higher" officials consider him a fool and an idiot does not bother him in the least. In another culture he might seek revenge, but instead he just smiles, agrees and continues on. In the immense stupidity of political powers, war, and military service, Schweik, who is released from service for being an idiot, is the only one who sees and thinks clearly. The brilliance of the book is in its portrayal of the realistic events that happen to an ordinary soldier. This is not a book of mysticism or deep philosophical reflections, but in its simple and humorous depictions achieved an illuminating effect on my outlook of life. It is and will remain one of my favorite books of all time.
Totally unique!.......2005-07-13
This book is a funny anti-war adventure story, but also so much more. It gives the reader an excellent sense of what it might have been like to live in the Austrian Empire in 1914-15. I know it sounds strange, but after reading this, Kafka begins to make sense. Read this book once for sheer entertainment, but then read it again and give it some thought. It's worth it!
In The Middle .......2005-05-11
The Good Solider Svejk is a comical tale of a faithful, "idiot" of a solider heading his way to proudly serve his country. The book chronicles his journey with his Regiment and is full of comical mishaps and such. Though, the book is pretty well written and on a very easy level, I found it to be a bit redundant. From reading the intro, this book started as a series of short stories and I think they would be better if read this way. Constantly hearing about how Svjek has once again, messed up something for the Lieutenant started to get annoying and predictable. This book was meant to be in six parts, however the author was only able to write four before passing away. Though that may be, you do not feel as if the ending left you hanging which can be good or bad depending on who you are. The fact that I was not left hanging made me feel that perhaps I could have left to book at page 400 and still felt the same about it. I normally enjoy long books, this however was very difficult for me to get through and I would not recommend it to those with short attention spans.
All in all, I found the writing to be easy and comical as there were several instances in which I wanted to laugh out loud. I do think, this book would have faired better if I had read it in the short story sections it had meant to be in. I am completely in the middle in regards to this book because I feel there are some people who would enjoy it much more than me and others who will put it down after the first 200 pages. If you would like to read The Good Solider Svejk, keep an open mind and have a few months set aside to complete it.
Yesterday's farce a good match with today's reality.......2005-02-19
Anyone who has ever endured government service will enjoy relating the scenes of "The Good Soldier" to his personal experiences. My favorite is the following scene of the hero being called from his cell for interrogation, not a normal subject of amusement these days. The attitude of our prisoners, seized in the war on terror, does not differ greatly from Svejk's --
They came to take him away for questioning. And so, mounting the staircase to the 3rd Department for questioning, Svejk carried his cross up on to the hill of Golgotha, sublimely unconscious of his martyrdom. As he came into the office, he said,"Good evening to you all, gentlemen." Instead of a reply, ... someone stood him in front of a table, behind which sat a gentleman with a cold official face and features of bestial cruelty, features of the criminal type. The interrogator gave Svejk a bloodthirsty look and said: "Take that idiotic expression off your face." "I can't help it," replied Svejk. "I was discharged from the army for idiocy ... I'm an official idiot."
Back in his cell, Svejk told all the detainees that this kind of interrogation was fun. "They shout at you a bit and finally they kick you out. In the old days, it used to be worse. If a chap was only thrown into a dungeon he felt as if he were reborn. Nowadays it's fun being locked up. It's true it's a bit far to the interrogation room. You've got to go along three corridors and up one staircase, but on the other hand it's a clean and lively corridor. No one need be afraid that in the office they'll tell him, "Well, we've considered your case and tomorrow you'll be quartered or burnt, your choice. Yes, nowadays things have improved for our good."
For those who see war in a religious vein --
"Preparations for the slaughter of mankind have always been made in the name of God or some supposed higher being which men have devised and created in their own imagination.
Before the Holy Inquisition burnt its victims, it performed the most solemn religious service -- a High Mass with singing.
When criminals are executed, priests always officiate, molesting the delinquents with their presence.The great shambles of the world war did not take place without the blessing of priests. Chaplains of all armies prayed and celebrated drumhead masses for victory for the side whose bread they ate.
Throughout all Europe people went to slaughter like cattle, driven there not only by butcher emperors, kings or other potentates and generals, but also by priests of all confession, who blessed them and made them perjure themselves that they would destroy the enemy on land, in the air, and on the sea etc."
Book Description
Some writers so capture the soul and spirit of a people that they are identified with them forever after. In England, it was Charles Dickens, in the United States, it was Mark Twain. For the Slavic nations, and to some extent for all Central Europeans, it is the Czech writer, Jaroslav Hasek.
Hasek's most important work was centered around a Czech soldier's experiences in World War One. It's actual title is The Fateful Adventures of The Good Soldier Svejk during the World War, but it is known by tens of millions of Central Europeans as simply, The Good Soldier Svejk. This monumental, humorous work is acknowledged as ". . . one of the greatest masterpieces of satirical writing" by no less a standard and exalted reference than the Encyclopedia Britannica.
The book's central character is a quintessential, working-class citizen-soldier, often abused by the fates and the forces of the Austrian empire. In both civilian and military life, Svejk lives by his wits. His chief ploy is to appear witless to those in authority. In fact, he is fond of pointing out that he has been certified to be an imbecile by an official military medical commission. Consequently, he reasons, he cannot be held responsible for his sometimes questionable actions because he's a certified nitwit!
Yet, Svejk is not a coward, nor is he indolent. He is drafted back into the army as cannon fodder to die for an Emperor he despises. His method of subverting the Austrian Empire is to carry out his orders to an absurd conclusion. His is an inspired resistance. He holds the foreign authorities, and their Czech fellow travelers, accountable for their ridiculous platitudes and pseudo-patriotic blather.
Customer Reviews:
Amazing.......2006-12-01
I found that this book was absolutely amazing. After reading John Kennedy Toole's A Confederacy of Dunces and looking for something to match its wit and humor I discovered Svejk. The tale follows Svejk and his time in the military during WWI. Its main character, being a notorious imbecile, gives the book outstanding humor. Svejk never plays by the rules, in spite of that, he manages to seem innocent. Some of the reviews said that it translation was horrendous but to me it seemed perfect. This book is a unknown, must have, of world literature
Good Try But No Cigar.......2005-08-17
When I saw this new translation of Svejk in a bookstore I immediately bought it. I love the novel and I have always thought that the Cecil Parrott translation, although good, wasn't quite "it". The problem with Parrott's translation is that it is a little too formal compared to the Czech original (incidentally, I'm fluent in Czech, so I know what the prose should feel like). This new Sadlon translation promised to remedy this situation, so optimistically I plowed right in, hoping for the best. Unfortunately, although the language has been (appropriately) "roughed up" a bit, the prose has suffered. Hasek's prose flows. It feels "right"; it doesn't jar. Unfortunately, Sadlon's translation at times does. Parrott's prose is, I think, closer to the original in its feel, while Sadlon's vocabulary is closer to the original. Blending the two, I suppose, might be the answer.
Amazing Satire.......2004-10-12
I bought the old translation of this book for a class, and then I happened upon this translation on amazon.com. I ended up buying it, and now my only regret is that I will have to read Books Two and Three from the old version. The translation allows for fluid, enjoyable reading, filled with an irony and humor that I have rarely found in translations of any book. Only the new translation of Andrei Bely's "Petersburg" comes close to the satire of this work, among the books I have recently read. If you are looking for a book about the absurdity of war and the resilience of a man who stands ready to fight it with his own foolishness, you should read this book. I will be eagerly awaiting the further translations by Zenny Sadlon and Mike Joyce, because the older translation does not even compare to the older, and, frankly, less funny translations. This book is not just a humorous book, however; it is a biting satire of a world gone mad in the midst of the Great War, a time when nations turned against each other as if they were merely playing a game of chess, with consequences for the lives of good citizens of many nations. Svejk presents a constant front of simpleton patriotism, one which the military and medical officials believe can only be mocking or ironic. This in itself reflects the contrived and ridiculous nature of the imperial fealty that was demanded of subjects during and after the First World War: even the most trained and disciplined soldiers find Svejk's constant and vocal patriotism ridiculous; it must be a parody. By admitting this with their punishment of him, they say very little about Svejk and a great deal about the false nature of blind patriotism and imperial loyalty, a sentiment only truly found in a few characters of the book, such as the archduchess who comes to give Svejk gifts in response to his idiotic screams in the street in support of the Great War. By reflecting on the false nature of patriotic war-mongering among the elite, Svejk stands to protest the mistakes of leaders by following them absolutely and enthusiastically, parroting the propaganda he is fed to such a level that even the propagandists are embarassed. Unlike other anti-war protestors or observers in most other anti-war tracts, Svejk stands out as someone who accepts the premises of the ruling class to such a degree that they are, themselves, embarassed to have set them forth. I thank goodness that this new translation lets that shine through, far from the old and stilted language of past translations. It is worth the money and time to wait for the new volumes of Books Two and Three to be published, and to buy Book One in this new translation, rather than to waste any time and money on an old translation that misses the point and insults the spirit of the genius Jaroslav Hasek who so beautifully and hilariously told the story of Svejk the good soldier and his fateful adventures.
What a disappointment.......2002-10-09
Svejk is not an easy book to translate - after all, Hasek was an anarchist. I've read the Penguin translation and it wasn't bad but stilted and very British English. This new and improved translation is quite simply terrible. A translator needs to know not only the words in both languages, but correct grammar as well. And this English speaker/writer does not. Stick with the older translations.
Yes, there can be a near-perfect translation.......2002-08-31
I own this book and the Czech original. Before I got this particular
translation, I used to feel sorry that my American son would never be
able to get a glimpse into the mentality of a nation living at the
bottom of the food chain, powerless but never defeated. This book
captures perfectly the spirit of Svejk,his seemingly pointless
rambbling, apparent half-wit, and his truly folk origin.
I found only one(!) place were the translation did not convey a
possible double meaning of the original, which is
absolutely remarkable. If the reader does not "get" the book,
it is not because of the translation. In fact, amongst my fellow Czechs and
Slovaks, there are only two groups of people when it comes to Hasek's
Svejk: those who love it and those who despise it. So the fact that there are
the two extremal types of reviews of this particular translation constitutes the
ultimate testimony of the translator's success.
Customer Reviews:
Informative and enjoyable dictionary of Czech popular culture.......2006-04-14
Andrew Roberts has compiled a highly informative and enjoyable dictionary of Czech popular culture.
The topics covered include society, politics, history, literature, music, movies, sports and much more.
Regardless of length, the entries are clear and well-written. Historical background is provided whenever needed.
The book is rounded off with a useful alphabetical and thematic index to all dictionary entries.
People interested in Czech history, culture and politics will find this work a valuable source for informative descriptions and definitions.
All the more so because it is written in a lucid, wry style which is a pleasure to read.
The author has a good eye for the little oddities of everyday life and a remarkable understanding of the Czech mentality and worldview (I especially liked the way he highlights Czech quirks with respect and humor).
A big plus is the author's website / blog, where he regularly updates and extends his book.
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