Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall (Princeton Studies in Complexity)

Book Description

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.

Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Customer Reviews:

Great read!.......2006-12-30

This is a very good effort. The author goes through basic knowledge about complex systems and its basic math and then slowly brings historical trends and changes into the picture. This is a very good way to learn about history and a very easy way to remember historical events if the reader follows Turchin's approach.

Again a good read for those who want to learn history using the most natural approach.

This is not a review it is only Table of Contents to help those who are intrested,.......2006-12-27

Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Preface
Ch. 1 Statement of the Problem 1
Ch. 2 Geopolitics 9
Ch. 3 Collective Solidarity 29
Ch. 4 The Metaethnic Frontier Theory 50
Ch. 5 An Empirical Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory 78
Ch. 6 Ethnokinetics 94
Ch. 7 The Demographic-Structural Theory 118
Ch. 8 Secular Cycles in Population Numbers 150
Ch. 9 Case Studies 170
Ch. 10 Conclusion 197
App. A: Mathematical Appendix 205
App. B Data Summaries for the Test of the Metaethnic Frontier Theory 214
Bibliography 226
Index 243

A new avenue for historical research.......2003-11-13

I remember that some years ago when I discovered
"Looking at History through Mathematics" by Nicolas Rashevsky
(published in 1968 by the MIT Press)
I was at first enthralled by the title but then fairly
disappointed by the book itself for in fact it contains very
little history: no solid statistical data, not even
qualitative historical trends that would illustrate some
of the theoretical curves. Instead of focusing on sharply
defined questions, Rashevsky raises broad issues such as for
instance (on p. 9 and 117)
why it took 10,000 years rather than a few hundred
for humanity to develop from its cultural state at the
beginning of early urban civilization to its present state.

This former experience explains why I read Peter Turchin's book
with so much pleasure. What a contrast indeed! In
every section stimulating models are blended with quantitative
historical data drawn from the best sources. From the rise of
Islam to the growth of the Mormon Church to Chinese dynastic
cycles "Historical Dynamics" offers a fascinating sample
of sharply defined problems for which models are able to provide
unified understanding.

Book Description

Biology and politics have converged today across much of the industrialized world. Debates about genetically modified organisms, cloning, stem cells, animal patenting, and new reproductive technologies crowd media headlines and policy agendas. Less noticed, but no less important, are the rifts that have appeared among leading Western nations about the right way to govern innovation in genetics and biotechnology. These significant differences in law and policy, and in ethical analysis, may in a globalizing world act as obstacles to free trade, scientific inquiry, and shared understandings of human dignity.

In this magisterial look at some twenty-five years of scientific and social development, Sheila Jasanoff compares the politics and policy of the life sciences in Britain, Germany, the United States, and in the European Union as a whole. She shows how public and private actors in each setting evaluated new manifestations of biotechnology and tried to reassure themselves about their safety.

Three main themes emerge. First, core concepts of democratic theory, such as citizenship, deliberation, and accountability, cannot be understood satisfactorily without taking on board the politics of science and technology. Second, in all three countries, policies for the life sciences have been incorporated into "nation-building" projects that seek to reimagine what the nation stands for. Third, political culture influences democratic politics, and it works through the institutionalized ways in which citizens understand and evaluate public knowledge. These three aspects of contemporary politics, Jasanoff argues, help account not only for policy divergences but also for the perceived legitimacy of state actions.

Dental Perspectives on Human Evolution: State of the art research in dental paleoanthropology (Vertebrate Paleobiology and Paleoanthropology)

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Dental Perspectives on Human Evolution: State of the art research in dental paleoanthropology (Vertebrate Paleobiology and Paleoanthropology)

Manufacturer: Springer
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Evolution | Science | Subjects | Books

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Primate Origins (Developments in Primatology: Progress and Prospects)
Neanderthals Revisited: New Approaches and Perspectives (Vertebrate Paleobiology and Paleoanthropology)
Seeking a Richer Harvest: The Archaeology of Subsistence Intensification, Innovation, and Change (Studies in Human Ecology and Adaptation)

ASIN: 1402058446

Book Description

The objective of the volume is to bring together, in one collection, the most innovative dental anthropological research as it pertains to the study of hominid evolution. In the past few decades both the numbers of hominin dental fossils and the sophistication of the techniques used to analyze them have increased substantially. Contributions focus on dental morphometrics, growth and development, diet and dental evolution. The contributed chapters include crown morphology, microstructure, microwear, stable isotope data, recent genetic research and new methodologies, including 3-D imaging, confocal microscopy and computer modeling.

This is a Volume in The Max-Planck-Institute Subseries in Human Evolution coordinated by Jean-Jacques Hublin, Max-Planck-Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Department of Human Evolution, Leipzig, Germany

Physician to the Gene Pool: Genetic Lessons and Other Stories

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Physician to the Gene Pool: Genetic Lessons and Other Stories
James V. Neel
Manufacturer: John Wiley & Sons
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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What Mean These Bones?: Studies in Southeastern Bioarchaeology

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What Mean These Bones?: Studies in Southeastern Bioarchaeology

Manufacturer: University Alabama Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

The Human Bone Manual

ASIN: 0817304843

Bioarchaeological Studies of Life in the Age of Agriculture: A View from the Southeast

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Bioarchaeology's time has come!

Bioarchaeological Studies of Life in the Age of Agriculture: A View from the Southeast

Manufacturer: University Alabama Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Americas | History | Subjects | Books

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The Human Bone Manual

ASIN: 081731007X

Customer Reviews:

Bioarchaeology's time has come!.......2000-04-28

This book is a must have for students interested in disease, trauma, markers of occupational stress, and dental anthropology, to name a few. The eleven chapters in this book combine into an extraordinary synthesis of not only the effects that the transition to agriculture had on health and behavior, but also the rich wealth of information that bioarchaeological analyses can add to studies of past peoples. This book is well-written and extremely readable. I espcially enjoyed the discussions of porotic hyperostosis and skeletal trauma from interpersonal conflict. Although indirectly discussed in a few chapters, I would have liked a chapter devoted to the change in mortuary practices during the transition to agriculture. This is merely a comment--not a criticism. I highly recommend this book!

Biocultural Histories in La Florida: A Bioarchaeological Perspective

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Biocultural Histories in La Florida: A Bioarchaeological Perspective
Christopher Stojanowski
Manufacturer: University Alabama Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Demography | Social Sciences | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

Book Description

Indigenous populations respond to colonial expansion.

This book examines the effects of the Spanish mission system on population structure and genetic variability in indigenous communities living in northern Florida and southern Georgia during the 16th and 17th centuries. Data on tooth size were collected from 26 archaeological samples representing three time periods: Late Precontact (~1200-1500), Early Mission (~1600-1650), and Late Mission (~1650-1700) and were subjected to a series of statistical tests evaluating genetic variability. Predicted changes in phenotypic population variability are related to models of group interaction, population demo-graphy, and genetic admixture as suggested by ethnohistoric and archaeological data.

Results suggest considerable differences in diachronic responses to the mission environment for each cultural province. The Apalachee demonstrate a marked increase in variability while the Guale demonstrate a decline in variability. Demographic models of population collapse are therefore inconsistent with predicted changes based on population geneticsl, and the determinants of population structure seem largely local in nature. This book highlights the specificity with which indigenous communities responded to European contact and the resulting transformations in their social worlds.

"Stojanowski's work is like man's DNA, the structure of a lifeform, but here it is the structure or glue that holds together the historic puzzle with its Apalachee, Timucua, Guale, and Spanish pieces that other scholars have been trying to put together."--Keith P. Jacobi, author of Last Rites for the Tipu Maya

Christopher Stojanowski is Assistant Professor of Anthropology at Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, and a specialist in bioarchaeology.

Bioinformatics and Genome Research: Proceedings of the Third International Conference : June 1-4, 1994 at Augustus Turnbull III Florida State Conference Center Tallahassee, Florida

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Bioinformatics and Genome Research: Proceedings of the Third International Conference : June 1-4, 1994 at Augustus Turnbull III Florida State Conference Center Tallahassee, Florida

Manufacturer: World Scientific Pub Co Inc
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Biological Anthropology: The State of the Science

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Biological Anthropology: The State of the Science
Noel T. Boaz
Manufacturer: Oregon State Univ Pr
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Science | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0964424800

The Colorado Plateau: Cultural, Biological, and Physical Research

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The Colorado Plateau: Cultural, Biological, and Physical Research

Manufacturer: University of Arizona Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Environmental Science | Earth Sciences | Science | Subjects | Books

Book Description

Presents 23 original articles on research, inventory, and monitoring of lands in the region. Topics include the impact of modern visitation at newly established national monuments, responses of elk at the urban-wildland interface, research on bald eagles at Grand Canyon, and an examination of past climate patterns over the Plateau using stream flow records and tree ring data.

Book Description

This book provides comprehensive, up-to-date, and accessible coverage of the relationship between fundamental chemistry and the uses of polymers. With help from new co-author James Mark, the book presents a complete overview of the synthetic, kinetic, structural, and applied aspects of modern polymer chemistry as well as coverage of industrial and medical applications. For chemists and chemical engineers involved in polymer chemistry.

Customer Reviews:

I agree, the binding is very nice.......2006-03-20

However this edition is full of ERRORS! An extremely frustrating book to try to learn out of. Did i do it incorrectly or is the equation printed there wrong or is the answere printed over there wrong, or maybe the question itself has a typo......who knows! My professor for this class was familiar with the first edition, but agreed to go with the second edition after we (the class) found it for $4 on here, then he had to go through and correct all the mistakes for us.

A good book on Polymer Chemistry.......2003-12-09

I used this book in conjunction with my Physical Chemistry book when we had a section on macromolecules. The coverage of material I needed for my class was applicable, readable, and spelled out in a way that made it easy for me to understand the subject matter. I have also read through the book outside of my Physical Chemistry class, and I believe it is on the more readable side. The text has a good supply of worked out examples in the text, but sometimes falls short on practice problems. Most of my experience with this book comes from using it in conjuction with other books - this book really shines at its explanation of the subject matter.

The best part about this book is its beautiful binding........1999-06-26

This book does a very poor job of teaching polymer chemistry. Coverage of most topics is too brief and includes too many mistakes. However, the book is organized in an interesting way, and topics that aren't included in most polymer chemistry books are mentioned briefly -- for example interesting polymer properties such as flame retardancy. In this sense, the book might get students excited about polymer science.

Contemporary Enzyme Kinetics and Mechanism (Selected Methods in Enzymology)

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Contemporary Enzyme Kinetics and Mechanism (Selected Methods in Enzymology)

Manufacturer: Academic Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Biochemistry | Biological Sciences | Science | Subjects | Books

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Biochemistry | Basic Science | Medicine | Subjects | Books

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Similar Items:

Enzyme Kinetics and Mechanism
Enzyme Kinetics: Behavior and Analysis of Rapid Equilibrium and Steady-State Enzyme Systems (Wiley Classics Library)
Enzymatic Reaction Mechanisms
Binding and Kinetics for Molecular Biologists

ASIN: 012568052X

Book Description

Kinetic studies of enzyme action provide powerful insights into the underlying mechanisms of catalysis and regulation. These approaches are equally useful in examining the action of newly discovered enzymes and therapeutic agents.
Contemporary Enzyme Kinetics and Mechanism, Second Edition presents key articles from Volumes 63, 64, 87, and 249 of Methods in Enzymology. The chapters describe the most essential and widely applied strategies. A set of exercises and problems is included to facilitate mastery of these topics.
The book will aid the reader to design, execute, and analyze kinetic experiments on enzymes. Its emphasis on enzyme inhibition will also make it attractive to pharmacologists and pharmaceutical chemists interested in rational drug design.
Of the seventeen chapters presented in this new edition, ten did not previously appear in the first edition.

Key Features
* Transient kinetic approaches to enzyme mechanisms
* Designing initial rate enzyme assay
* Deriving initial velocity and isotope exchange rate equations
* Plotting and statistical methods for analyzing rate data
* Cooperativity in enzyme function
* Reversible enzyme inhibitors as mechanistic probes
* Transition-state and multisubstrate inhibitors
* Affinity labeling to probe enzyme structure and function
* Mechanism-based enzyme inactivators
* Isotope exchange methods for elucidating enzymatic catalysis
* Kinetic isotope effects in enzyme catalysis
* Site-directed mutagenesis in studies of enzyme catalysis

Handbook of Food Spoilage Yeasts (Crc Series in Contemporary Food Science)

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Handbook of Food Spoilage Yeasts (Crc Series in Contemporary Food Science)
Tibor Deak , and Larry R. Beuchat
Manufacturer: CRC
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Food Science | Agricultural Sciences | Science | Subjects | Books

Microbiology | Basic Science | Medicine | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0849327032

Book Description

Because yeasts are capable of growing in a wide range of foods, their metabolic activities can cause significant economic losses in the food industry. Handbook of Food Spoilage Yeasts is the first guide to tackle this important subject. This easy-to-understand book describes in detail the ecology and physiology of spoilage yeasts. It explores the influence of ecological factors on growth, metabolic activities, survival, and death of yeasts in food. It also provides techniques for enumeration and identification of commonly encountered yeasts. Building upon this foundation, Handbook of Food Spoilage Yeasts presents strategies for food preservation based on controlling or killing spoilage yeasts and highlights information useful for monitoring the effectiveness of processing and storage technologies. This book is of tremendous practical value for anyone working in the food industry or interested in the mycological dimension of food spoilage. Handbook of Food Spoilage Yeasts is a long-overdue, essential resource.

Introduction to Organic Laboratory Techniques: A Contemporary Approach (Saunders Golden Sunburst Series)

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Introduction to Organic Laboratory Techniques: A Contemporary Approach (Saunders Golden Sunburst Series)
Donald L. Pavia , Gary M. Lampman , and George S. Kriz
Manufacturer: Saunders College Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0030148138

Contemporary Aspects of Boron: Chemistry and Biological Applications (Studies in Inorganic Chemistry)

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Contemporary Aspects of Boron: Chemistry and Biological Applications (Studies in Inorganic Chemistry)
Hijazi Abu Ali , Valery M Dembitsky , and Morris Srebnik
Manufacturer: Elsevier Science
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 044452021X

Book Description

Contemporary Aspects of Boron: Chemistry and Biological Applications highlights the biological activity and applications of boron containing compounds. The authors specific approach surveys general features of the subject, while exploring new and novel strategies for preparing certain chemical and natural boron products that are of significant substance in medicinal chemistry. For example, cancer treatment is one of the most important issues related to such products. In addition to contributing to the development of new drugs by addressing biological applications in medicinal and industrial fields, the book provides a comprehensive review of the most relevant components that comprise the pharmaceutical, medicinal and environmental applications of boron containing compounds.

* Timely and comprehensive
* Provides new insights to active researchers in the field
* Presents concepts and methods in simple scientific terms

Contemporary Heterocyclic Chemistry: Syntheses, Reactions and Applications

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Contemporary Heterocyclic Chemistry: Syntheses, Reactions and Applications
George R. Newkome , and William W. Paudler
Manufacturer: Wiley-Interscience
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General & Reference | Chemistry | Science | Subjects | Books

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Book Description

A comprehensive approach to heterocyclic chemistry, based on the concept of PI [ ] -excessive and PI [ ] -deficient ring systems. Introduces the categorical similarities and differences among the varied heterocyclic systems. Explains the logical consistency of the numerous systhesis and relative reactivities of heterocyclic compounds, as demonstrated not only by their chemical reactions, but by their spectroscopic properties as well. Also provides highly useful tabulation of nuclear magnetic resonance data for proton, carbon and nitrogen, mass spectral fragmentation, and the results of unified molecular orbital calculations.

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Contemporary Organic Chemistry
M. Oleary
Manufacturer: Mcgraw-Hill
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Reference | Subjects | Books

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Contemporary organic chemistry
Stephen J Weininger
Manufacturer: Holt, Rinehart and Winston
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Contemporary Organic Chemistry (Saunders golden sunburst series)

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Contemporary Organic Chemistry (Saunders golden sunburst series)
Andrew L., Jr. Ternay
Manufacturer: W B Saunders Co
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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